Where Will ExxonMobil Be in 5 Years?

Motley Fool12-23 19:07

ExxonMobil reported stagnant sales and declining earnings in its last earnings report. The company raised its dividend regardless, and plans to keep spending on capital investment and share ...

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If it can deliver by 2030, the share price should move much higher.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fool.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002521.SGD":"United Global Resources A Acc SGD","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","FCF":"第一联邦金融","LU0654597011.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A4G\" (USD) INC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU0612318971.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU1150488218.USD":"First Eagle Amundi Income Builder AU2-MD USD","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU0278409577.USD":"MANULIFE GLOBAL FUND-GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE00B2Q91V27.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL ENERGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","IE00BGHQF524.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL ENERGY \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","BK4211":"区域性银行","XOM":"埃克森美孚","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0612318385.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU1582987597.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) INC"},"translate_title":"埃克森美孚5年后会在哪里？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FCF":1,"XOM":0.9},"content_text":"ExxonMobil reported stagnant sales and declining earnings in its last earnings report.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe company raised its dividend regardless, and plans to keep spending on capital investment and share buybacks in future years.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBy 2030, Exxon promises to beat analyst earnings forecasts by nearly 30%.\n\nSo you say you want to invest in top-10 oil stock ExxonMobil (XOM 0.34%) -- but you'd first like some assurance that the stock will go up after you buy it, and not down? Then today may be your lucky day! ExxonMobil's management just launched a forecast that lays out in clear, concise numbers how it expects its business to perform both next year and over the next five years. Wall Street analysts have also chimed in about Exxon's forecast. Put these two prognostications together, and you should get a good inkling of where Exxon stock will be in five years.Where ExxonMobil stock is todayExxonMobil reported third-quarter earnings last month, and the news wasn't half bad. Despite generally falling oil prices, Exxon managed to hold its revenue decline to less than 1 percentage point. Earnings did take a hit, down 15% year over year. But that didn't prevent Exxon from rewarding its shareholders with a rising dividend, and Exxon now pays a 3.7% dividend yield that is more than twice the average yield on the S&P 500.  Free cash flow (FCF) was a robust $11.3 billion, significantly ahead of reported net income in the quarter. For the year to date, Exxon has generated $26.4 billion in positive free cash flow -- about 97% of reported net income. What Exxon expects to do between now and 2030Exxon characterized its Q3 results as \"industry leading,\" and the company intends to continue making investments in the new year to maintain that lead, even as it continues investing in its own stock to reward shareholders.In 2025, Exxon plans to ramp up capital investment to somewhere between $27 billion and $29 billion, even as it spends $20 billion more on share repurchases -- concentrating profits for its shareholders among fewer shares outstanding. Over the next five years, the company furthermore promised to invest between $28 billion and $33 billion in annual capex. Management didn't say for certain how long it will keep buying back shares, but did commit to spending another $20 billion on share buybacks in at least 2026.Maintaining this pace of investing both in its business and in its shareholders through 2030, Exxon predicts, will result in earnings $20 billion better than what it earned in 2024, and $30 billion more operating cash flow. And while Exxon's 2024 numbers aren't fully in just yet, based on analyst forecasts, that should work out to approximately $54.5 billion in fiscal 2030 earnings (58% total growth) and $87.4 billion in fiscal 2030 operating cash flow.Even assuming Exxon is still investing about $33 billion in capex that year, it would mean Exxon's 2030 free cash flow will be $54.4 billion -- essentially backing up every $1 of net income with $1 in real cash profit.Image source: Getty Images.What analysts think Exxon will earn in 2030Speaking of analyst estimates, though, what does Wall Street think of these numbers? Well, here's where things get interesting: Turns out, if Exxon comes anywhere close to delivering what it's promising, Wall Street analysts are going to be utterly gobsmacked.Reviewing long-term forecasts from S&P Global Market Intelligence, it seems analysts are currently calculating Exxon will earn just $42.2 billion in 2030, and predict free cash flow of not $54.4 billion -- but only $38.7 billion.Long story short, Exxon is promising to beat Wall Street earnings estimates by 29% in 2030, and deliver 40% more free cash flow to boot!Is ExxonMobil stock a buy?So what does all this mean for investors?Priced under 14 times earnings, paying a dividend yield near 4%, and expected to grow earnings at about 4.5% annually over the next decade, Exxon stock looks a little pricey right now. And with free cash flow currently lagging net income a bit, the stock's price-to-free-cash-flow ratio looks even less attractive.Exxon, however, is now promising to blow past these analyst estimates, grow its earnings at a steady 10% annual rate over the next five to six years, grow its cash flow at 8%, and cut enough costs to close the gap between reported earnings and actual free cash flow.Assuming Exxon can deliver on its promises, today's valuation of roughly 14 times both earnings and FCF looks right on the money to me, for a stock growing at 10% and paying a nearly 4% dividend. If all goes as planned, I'd expect the company's stock price to therefore continue growing as its earnings and free cash flow expand.Five years from now, Exxon stock should be worth a lot more than it costs today.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2493593237"}