Wedbush estimates that 300 million iPhones are over 4 years told, which could lead to a record upgrades that help propel Apple to a $4 trillion market cap
Apple is set for “strong” iPhone 16 sales over the holidays, as Wedbush estimates there are 300 million iPhones globally that are over 4 years old.
Apple Inc. is headed for a strong holiday season that could kick-start a “supercycle,” as hundreds of millions of people around the world are poised to upgrade to new iPhones with artificial-intelligence capabilities in the coming months.
This could lead to gangbuster sales in the key China market — and likely to a new partner there, as new features get rolled out.
The Cupertino, Calif.-based company’s stock ended at the all-time high of $255.27 on Monday, its 12th record close in December. It traded as high as $255.65, setting a new all-time intraday high as well.
As Wedbush’s prolific analyst Dan Ives told clients Monday, he estimates there are roughly 300 million iPhones in the world that have not been upgraded in over four years.
Therefore, based on recent checks into Apple’s supply chain, he believes the company could sell a record 240 million new iPhones or more in fiscal 2025, which ends in September, as the AI-driven upgrade cycle with Apple Intelligence takes hold.
The FactSet consensus for fiscal 2025 iPhones sales is for 207.6 million.
Basically, Ives is projecting the widest margin of an iPhone sales beat since fiscal 2010 — as far back as FactSet has data available.
“We believe the success of iPhone 16 with a strong holiday season ahead over the next week will be the launching pad for a renaissance of growth in Cupertino over the next 12-to-18 months that kicks off in this December quarter,” Ives wrote in a note to clients.
“Importantly, Apple Intelligence has not rolled out in China or many other countries with April the likely timetable for these AI launches, along with a Chinese tech partner also named very soon to catalyze the timing of this rollout in this key region,” he added.
In fiscal 2024, Apple booked $66.95 billion in revenue, or 17% of its total revenue of $391.04 billon, from greater China.
Ives estimates that there are 100 million iPhones in China that are “in the window” for an upgrade opportunity this year.
He believes Apple will become the first-ever company to reach market capitalization of $4 trillion “by early 2025.”
Apple is currently the most valuable U.S. company by far, with a market capitalization of $3.86 trillion in recent trading. In second place is Nvidia Corp., with a market cap of $3.42 trillion.
Apple’s stock would need to close above $264.62, or rally less than 3.7% from current levels, for its market cap to top $4 trillion.
Ives reiterated his outperform rating and his 12-month stock-price target of $300. That target is the highest among the 53 analysts surveyed by FactSet who cover Apple and implies a market cap of $4.53 trillion.
The stock has rallied 33% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced 14% and the S&P 500 has climbed 25%. Apple is a Dow component.
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