Bitcoin has wobbled since breaching the $100,000 milestone earlier this month - but history suggests a new all-time high could be in sight by around mid-January, according to crypto research firm K33.
The largest cryptocurrency rose 6.1% on Tuesday to around $98,679, bouncing back from below $93,000 on Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Bitcoin hit a record high at $108,309 on Dec. 17, but tumbled last week along with stocks after the Federal Reserve signaled it would deliver fewer interest-rate cuts in 2025 than policymakers previously anticipated.
The average duration from bitcoin's first to last all-time record high during each cycle has been 318 days based on data from its last three cycles, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33. As bitcoin hit its first record high on March 5 during this current cycle, investors may see the crypto reach a new, final peak this cycle on Jan. 17, 2025, if the average duration of previous cycles repeats.
Crypto analysts often divide bitcoin's price performance into four-year cycles - each of which see it experience four phases including breakout, hype, correction and accumulation. The cycles are primarily based on the schedule of bitcoin's halving, a mechanism to control the crypto's supply where the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half. Halving happens roughly every four years, with the most recent one happening in April this year.
If bitcoin does reach a cycle peak in mid-January, it would be close to Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. president, which falls on Jan. 20.
"Trump's election has been the catalyst behind the strong fourth-quarter rally, and the inauguration would be a natural conclusion of the momentum, given the likelihood of political processes needing time to materialize," Lunde wrote in a recent note.
Using estimates based on previous cycle-peak prices, bitcoin may reach a peak at $146,000 this cycle, Lunde wrote. When using previous market capitalization as reference, bitcoin could hit a top at $212,500 this cycle, Lunde added.
To be sure, bitcoin has a relatively short history as an asset, given that it only launched in 2009. With such a small sample size, its historical price data may not be meaningful enough, while past performance is also not always indicative of future performance. Indeed, bitcoin's cyclical effects are also becoming less pronounced as the impact of halving decreases, Lunde noted.
For now, the sentiment in the crypto market appears to be softening as the year draws to a close, analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital wrote in a Tuesday note.
As of Monday, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw three days of consecutive outflows.
Additionally, while MicroStrategy on Monday said it had acquired another 5,262 bitcoins at roughly $106,662 per token for $561 million - pushing software company's total holdings on its balance sheet to 444,262 bitcoins - "this represents its smallest purchase in recent weeks, prompting questions about its appetite at these levels," the QCP analysts noted.
And while stock-market bulls are looking forward to a "Santa Claus rally" heading into the new year, that phenomenon doesn't necessarily apply to bitcoin.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 SPX has closed higher 77% of the time during the Santa Claus trading window, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That's not been the case for bitcoin, which has risen only half of the time during the 14 Santa Claus periods since 2010. (To be sure, bitcoin trades every day, unlike stocks, so the year-end trading windows differ slightly for the two assets.)
Moreover, bitcoin's trading volumes have been on a steady decline since it rose above $100,000 earlier this month, a sign that bullish conviction has been fading, Tyler Richey, technical analyst and co-editor at Sevens Report Research, wrote in emailed comments to MarketWatch.
Still, from the technical perspective, a relief rally back towards $100,000 "would be a natural reactionary move to the upside following the sudden weakness after the Fed last week," Richey noted.
"If we were to see a break above congestion resistance on the daily chart between $100,000 and $101,500, then a retest of the current closing and intraday records between $106,000 and $108,000 would become extremely likely," Richey wrote.
"From there, a failure to break to new highs would be a bearish development, with support in the low $90,000s back in focus, while new highs would reinstall the bullish technical setup for bitcoin with a measured move target of $118,000," he added.
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