Will it or won’t it? That question will be answered by Tesla when it releases its fourth-quarter deliveries on Thursday.
In the first three quarters of 2024, Tesla delivered about 1.29 million vehicles around the globe, down about 2% compared with the same span in 2023.
The question, of course, is about Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries. Investors want to know if Tesla sold more cars in 2024 than in 2023.
Growth isn’t a certainty. In the first three quarters of the year, Tesla delivered about 1.29 million vehicles around the globe, down about 2% compared with the same span of 2023.
Tesla needs to have delivered about 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter for the full-year total to eclipse the 1.81 million cars it shipped in 2023. The company delivered 484,507 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2023, its best quarter ever, so it needs another record to avoid its first annual decline in sales volume.
There is reason for optimism. The company predicted growth in sales volume in its third-quarter earnings report in October. Since then, the consensus forecast among analysts tracked by FactSet has crept up to about 505,000 cars and trucks from just under 500,000.
The consensus estimate as compiled by Tesla, a number that includes estimated from 26 large brokers, is about 507,000 vehicles.
Both the FactSet and the Tesla numbers are short of the 515,000 needed, but Future Fund Active ETF (FFND) co-founder and Tesla shareholderGary Blackdoesn’t think Tesla would have to ship 515,000 cars to satisfy investors. He said anything above 500,000 should be good enough.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives agrees, saying the “whisper number,” the figure investors really expect, is about 500,000 vehicles. A whisper number can be higher or lower than published estimates for any number of reasons, including that not all analysts update their estimates with the same frequency.
If Ives and Black are right, any number above 500,000 should be enough to keep shares stable or provide a boost, even if the final tally falls a little short of the analyst consensus.
Tesla stock doesn’t need much of a boost these days. Shares finished 2024 up more than 60%. Almost all of that gain came following the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Investors certainly care about quarterly deliveries, but whether Tesla ended 2024 with a flurry of deliveries isn’t what is driving the stock. These days, investors are far more focused on two developments expected for 2025 and how CEO Elon Musk’s close relationship with President-elect Donald Trump will help the electric vehicle maker.
For starters, Tesla is expected to start selling a lower-priced EV in early 2025. Musk believes the new model will help Tesla increase sales volume by 20% to 30% this coming year.
Tesla is also planning to launch a self-driving robotaxi service in late 2025. The Trump administration could help Tesla meet that deadline by issuing favorable federal regulations on autonomous driving.
Whatever Tesla reports, investors will continue to watch for the new model and Tesla’s robotaxi service. Those two things will go a long way to determining if Tesla stock can make it three strong years in a row.
Tesla shares gained 102% in 2023 after falling 65% in 2022. Since Tesla went public in June 2010, selling shares at a split-adjusted price of $1.13, the stock has suffered annual declines only twice.
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