Jan 3 (Reuters) - In the past month Brent crude oil has risen by $6/bbl while natural gas prices doubled between September and December. Both moves favour the dollar as the currency of one the world's largest producers while the surge in gas is particularly problematic for the eurozone.
EUR/USD, which is by far the most influential currency pair, has started this year by falling to its lowest since November 2022. The move has underpinned the dollar against other currencies, in particular much less liquid emerging currencies.
The weakness of emerging currencies will stoke risk aversion which will fuel demand for the world's reserve currency, and weakness is acute with a number of high profile currencies like China's yuan, Russian rouble and Indian rupee tumbling toward record lows.
The currencies of the remaining BRIC nations - Brazil's real and South Africa's rand - have also plunged, with the real falling to a record low and the rand dropping 11 percent versus the dollar since October.
Unlike 2022, when investment in the dollar became crowded prompting a correction, there is far less invested in the greenback now, and judged by moves in emerging markets there is growing demand. Drops into uncharted waters for many currencies may limit the supply of dollars, leading to an even faster rise in its value.
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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))
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