US LNG export feedgas near record high
European gas prices hit 13-month high
Cold weather lifts US spot prices to highest levels since January 2024
By Scott DiSavino
Jan 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on near record flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Also supporting U.S. futures, traders noted that European gas prices climbed to a 13-month high due to cold weather and the expiration of a deal that allowed Russia to pipe gas to Europe across Ukraine. NG/EU
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 3 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.663 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:38 a.m. EST (1538 GMT).
In the spot market, frigid weather moving across parts of the U.S. boosted next-day gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana and in Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL to their highest levels since January 2024.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, up from 103.8 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists project weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from mostly near normal from Jan. 2-5 to colder than normal from Jan. 6-17.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would jump from 119.3 bcfd this week to 144.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday before the New Year's holiday on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 14.9 bcfd so far in January, up from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Despite recent increases, LNG feedgas - the fastest growing source of U.S. gas demand growth in recent years - eased to 13.07 bcfd in 2024 from 13.09 bcfd in 2023, the first annual decline since the country started exporting the super-chilled fuel from the Lower 48 states in 2016.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Gas was trading around $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1, a 13-month high, and $14 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Dec 27 Forecast | Week ended Dec 20 Actual | Year ago Dec 27 | Five-year average Dec 27 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -122 | -93 | -35 | -104 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,407 | 3,529 | 3,480 | 3,259 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.5% | 4.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.70 | 3.63 | 2.72 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 15.17 | 14.69 | 9.55 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 14.24 | 14.16 | 10.32 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 493 | 492 | 416 | 436 | 443 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 494 | 493 | 417 | 440 | 446 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.5 | 105.4 | 105.1 | 105.5 | 96.7 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.3 | 9.4 | 9.5 | N/A | 9.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.9 | 114.8 | 114.7 | N/A | 106.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | N/A | 3.0 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | N/A | 5.6 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 11.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 16.4 | 13.5 | 19.9 | 16.5 | 16.4 |
U.S. Residential | 27.3 | 21.6 | 33.8 | 27.6 | 28.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.0 | 28.7 | 32.2 | 38.1 | 31.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 25.4 | 24.5 | 26.8 | 25.9 | 25.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 4.1 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 109.2 | 96.2 | 121.3 | 116.0 | 111.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 132.4 | 119.3 | 144.8 | N/A | 131.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 91 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 91 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 92 | 91 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jan 3 | Week ended Dec 27 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 13 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 23 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.40 | 3.39 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.18 | 2.80 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.06 | 3.66 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.01 | 2.80 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.15 | 2.95 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 4.75 | 2.90 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.58 | 3.60 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.25 | 3.60 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.61 | 1.57 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 57.50 | 40.54 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 39.48 | 26.98 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 38.72 | 37.31 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 30.00 | 34.80 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 39.63 | 30.73 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
Comments