Morgan Stanley Pounds the Table on These 2 Timeshare Stocks

TipRanks01-08

This first half of the 2020s has been difficult for timeshare stocks. The shutdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic were followed by rising inflation and rising interest rates, which all pushed down hard on ...

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The shutdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic were followed by rising inflation and rising interest rates, which all pushed down hard on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-pounds-table-2-105720718.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"yahoofinance","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Pounds the Table on These 2 Timeshare Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Pounds the Table on These 2 Timeshare Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-08 18:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-pounds-table-2-105720718.html><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This first half of the 2020s has been difficult for timeshare stocks. The shutdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic were followed by rising inflation and rising interest rates, which all pushed down hard on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-pounds-table-2-105720718.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0106831901.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-pounds-table-2-105720718.html","article_id":"2501728738","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"yahoofinance","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-pounds-table-2-105720718.html","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"img, svg { display: none !important; }","selectors":"article","filters":"","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2501728738","pubTimestamp":1736333840,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"yahoofinance","name":"雅虎金融"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"This first half of the 2020s has been difficult for timeshare stocks. 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So, while it’s not surprising that timeshares have underperformed in recent years, consumers are starting to move back into them – and that opens an opportunity for investors.Analyst Stephen Grambling, covering the timeshare leisure sector for Morgan Stanley, notes that timeshare stocks are frequently underappreciated by investors – but that the industry is on the cusp of a bullish cycle.Turning to the company’s financial ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","HGV":"Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","TNL":"Travel Plus Leisure Co.","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)"},"translate_title":"摩根士丹利对这两只分时度假股票进行了猛烈抨击","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":1,"HGV":1,"TNL":0.9},"content_text":"This first half of the 2020s has been difficult for timeshare stocks. The shutdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic were followed by rising inflation and rising interest rates, which all pushed down hard on consumer demand. But the pandemic is well behind us now; inflation, while still slightly above the Fed’s target rate, appears to be stabilizing; and the central bank is back to cutting rates.\n\nStay Ahead of the Market:\n\nDiscover outperforming stocks and invest smarter with Top Smart Score Stocks\nFilter, analyze, and streamline your search for investment opportunities using Tipranks' Stock Screener\n\n\nSo, while it’s not surprising that timeshares have underperformed in recent years, consumers are starting to move back into them – and that opens an opportunity for investors.\nAnalyst Stephen Grambling, covering the timeshare leisure sector for Morgan Stanley, notes that timeshare stocks are frequently underappreciated by investors – but that the industry is on the cusp of a bullish cycle.\n“Both consumers and investors alike often view timeshare skeptically, but the more stable-than-feared nature of the business and potential for attractive returns relative to rates can facilitate periods of outsized share price performance,” Grambling opined. “Currently, the stocks are coming off an unprecedented three years of underperformance amid rising rates and normalizing leisure demand. We see potential for a return to stable growth from here vs. consensus flat, leading us to skew net positive on the stocks in 2025 but structural concerns and idiosyncratic changes to businesses warrant being tactical.”\nPutting these sentiments into concrete terms, Grambling has picked two specific timeshare stocks as particularly attractive right now – and he’s not shy about recommending both as Buys. Let’s open up the TipRanks database and see how the Morgan Stanley view on these stocks stacks up against the broader Wall Street view.\nTravel + Leisure Company (TNL)\nThe first stock we’ll look at here is Travel + Leisure Company, an Orlando-based timeshare company founded in 2006 and conducting operations at resort destinations worldwide. Travel + Leisure’s primary focus is on developing, selling, and managing timeshare properties, mainly located in prime vacation spots. The company’s operations are conducted through a range of brand names, including such well-known ones as Wyndham, Margaritaville, and Worldmark.\nThis vacation company’s ops are split into two main categories, vacation ownership and travel & membership. The vacation ownership portfolio serves more than 800,000 timeshare owners, with properties at more than 270 resorts and vacation spots around the world. The travel & membership portfolio is based on a vacation exchange platform with 3.5 million members. Through the exchange, these members have access to over 4,000 resorts in 100 countries.\nTurning to the company’s financial results, we find that TNL’s last reported quarter, 3Q24, had a top line of $993 million in total revenues. This was relatively flat year-over-year, and missed the forecast by $17 million. At the bottom line, the company realized a non-GAAP EPS of $1.57. This company has, in recent months, shown strong cash generation. In the nine months ending with September 30, 2024, the company’s $266 million adj. free cash flow was more than triple the FCF from the first nine months of 2023 – and in Q3, the company generated $154 million of that free cash flow.\nOf particular interest to investors, Travel + Leisure continued its policy of returning capital to shareholders. In Q3, the company returned $105 million, through $70 million worth of share repurchases and $35 million in dividend payments. The last dividend declaration was made on November 6 and was paid out on December 13. The 50-cent common share dividend annualizes to $2 per share, and gives a forward yield of 3.9%.\nFor Morgan Stanley’s Grambling, there are several important points to keep in mind on this stock. “TNL’s strategic pivot to focusing on higher FICO customers even at the expense of growth near term is finally paying off with an improvement in owner growth and potential for structurally lower defaults/ provision,” the analyst said. “Moreover, despite apparent stabilization in the membership segment, the stock still trades at a compelling 8.0x NTM P/E and 14% FCF yield. Look for the return to growth to catalyze both upside to estimates (we are 6%/17% above 2025 EBITDA/EPS) and a re-rating from 5.5x our 2026 to 7.5x 2026 EPS… Just as important, depressed valuation and history of steady capital return create a favorable risk adjusted reward.”\nThese comments back up Grambling’s Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating on TNL shares, while his $67 price target implies a 12-month upside potential of 31%. (To watch Grambling’s track record, click here)\nOverall, there are 8 recent analyst reviews on record for TNL shares, and their breakdown of 5 Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Sell gives the stock its Moderate Buy consensus rating. The stock is selling for $51.23, and its $55.17 average target price indicates an 8% upside for the coming year. (See TNL stock forecast)\n\n\n\nHilton Grand Vacations (HGV)\nThe next stock on our list, Hilton Grand Vacations, may sound familiar – because it shares a name with the famous Hilton Hotel company. Since 2017, Hilton Grand Vacations has been acting as an independent company, working as the manager and operator of Hilton’s timeshare and vacation ownership brands. This gives HGV a network of resorts – approximately 168 of them – spread across 16 states plus DC in the US, with an international presence in Canada, the Caribbean, Mexico, the UK and mainland Europe, and Japan. These vacation properties are at the disposal of HGV’s 722,000 members.\nTimeshare owners with HGV don’t just have access to properties, they also have access to amenities on the properties, including such attractions as golf resorts, beachfronts, casino floors, and even ski slopes. Vacationers can find attractions keyed to adults or to families, with a wide range of activities to focus on, including shopping, spas, movies, sports, and restaurants.\nHGV has a history of expansion-through-acquisition, and has made two major moves in this direction in recent years. In 2021, the company acquired the upscale luxury hotel operator Diamond Resorts, in a transaction valued at $1.4 billion. More recently, HGV completed its acquisition-by-purchase of Bluegreen Vacations, in an all-cash transaction of $1.5 billion. Each of these acquisitions brings the target company’s assets – resorts, destinations, attractions – into HGV’s network, available for timeshare members.\nBased on its timeshare operations, Hilton Grand Vacations generated $1.3 billion in total revenues during 3Q24, its last reported financial period. While only $10 million better than the estimates, this revenue figure was up 27.5% year-over-year. At the bottom line, HGV’s non-GAAP earnings were down year-over-year, from 98 cents per share to 67 cents per share – and missed the forecast by 5 cents.\nChecking in again with the Morgan Stanley view, we find that analyst Grambling is upbeat here, finding reason for optimism in this company’s potential to bring improved returns going forward. He writes of the stock, “HGV’s acquisitions of Diamond & Bluegreen will continue to drive outsized EPS growth (20% CAGR 2024-26) through synergies and steady top-line growth. While both deals likely raise concerns about the quality of the owner base, especially on the heels of recent increases to the company’s loan loss provision, the average FICO score of owners has actually held relatively stable. As a result, we see room for the company’s provision to move lower over time. In addition, we expect HGV to deliver best in-class capital returns relative to its market cap (10% 2025 TSR / current market cap).”\nGrambling puts an Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating on this timeshare company, along with a $47 price target that indicates room for a 23.5% upside potential on the one-year horizon.\nThe Moderate Buy consensus rating on this stock is based on 6 recent reviews that include 4 to Buy and 1 each to Hold and Sell. The shares are priced at $38.06 and have an average price target of $47.17, practically the same as Grambling’s objective. (See HGV stock forecast)\n\n\n\nTo find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.\nDisclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. 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