Is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) the Best Dividend Stock According to Wall Street Analysts?

We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Dow Jones Dividend Stocks According to Wall Street Analysts. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stands against the other dividend stocks.

The Dow is a highly recognized and influential stock market index that tracks the performance of 30 publicly traded companies listed on US stock exchanges, representing a wide range of industries. In the past 12 months, the index has surged by nearly 16%, and it has delivered a return of over 5% since the start of 2025.

Almost all of the companies in the index distribute dividends to their shareholders, with some having stronger dividend records than others. While there is a lot of focus on AI-driven capital gains, it's important to keep in mind that dividends have consistently been a key component of total returns. Over the long term, their importance grows. From 1987 to the end of 2023, about 55% of market returns have been generated from reinvested dividends.

In 2024, dividend stocks lagged behind as the AI boom and growing interest in tech stocks shifted investor focus elsewhere. The Dividend Aristocrats index, which tracks companies with at least 25 years of consecutive dividend growth, underperformed relative to the broader market. However, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term potential of dividend stocks. This confidence is driven by the substantial cash reserves many US companies hold, which provide a strong foundation for sustaining or increasing dividend payouts. The Wells Fargo Investment Institute reports that large-cap US companies collectively hold over $2.4 trillion in cash, creating significant opportunities to start or enhance dividends.

Also read: 12 Best 5% Dividend Stocks To Buy According To Hedge Funds

Dividends are a strategy that requires patience, with rewards unfolding over time. For instance, if you had invested a dollar in the broader market in 1927 and didn’t reinvest any dividends, it would now be worth $243. However, if dividends had been reinvested, that same dollar would have grown to $3,737. The good news is that you don't need to wait a century to see the growth potential of dividend stocks, as the near-term outlook is positive. A report from AGF Investments notes that global monetary easing in the latter half of 2024 has driven bond yields lower, making them less appealing compared to dividend-paying stocks. Moreover, companies that distribute higher dividends tend to have more financial leverage, and with lower bond yields, they can better manage their interest expenses, enhancing their financial performance and supporting continued dividend growth.

Chris Senyek, Chief Investment Strategist at Wolfe Research, offers an alternative approach to investing in dividend stocks. While most investors focus on companies with growing dividends and high yields, Senyek recommends also considering companies that are starting to pay dividends or those that have recently cut their payouts. A new dividend often signals that management is confident in its ability to sustain earnings and cash flow, while also appealing to a broader group of investors.

Senyek also pointed out that stocks of companies that reduce their dividends typically underperform before the cut, align with the broader market afterward, and then start to outperform about six months later. The strategy is to identify companies that might be at risk of cutting their dividends and reassess those that have already made cuts in recent months. To predict potential dividend cuts, Senyek looks for companies with high dividend yields, significant debt, and high payout ratios. For companies that might begin paying dividends, he focuses on those with strong free cash flow yields, active share buybacks, and manageable debt levels. With this in mind, we will now take a look at some of the best Dow dividend stocks according to analysts.

Our Methodology:

For this article, we examined the companies within the Dow Jones index and identified companies that pay dividends to shareholders. From that group, we further refined our selection criteria by identifying stocks with a projected upside potential of over 10% based on analyst price targets, as of February 6. The stocks are ranked according to their upside potential. We also considered hedge fund sentiment around each stock using Insider Monkey’s data for Q3 2024.

Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)

Upside Potential as of February 6: 22.5%

An American multinational tech giant, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has fallen by over 6% in the past five days. The introduction of DeepSeek's R1 model has sparked concerns for Microsoft, given its significant investments in OpenAI, the creator of the O1 series. In addition, although the company exceeded Wall Street’s expectations with its second-quarter earnings, it wasn't enough to convince investors to drive the stock price to new highs.

That said, regarding the controversy surrounding DeepSeek, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s CEO, Satya Nadella, who is known for his strategic adaptability, said that the management could potentially turn this challenge into an opportunity. Nadella has previously embraced open-source strategies, such as incorporating Chromium into Edge and expanding GitHub Copilot to support various AI models. With AI becoming more commoditized, Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform could adjust by offering open-source models as APIs and integrating more affordable models like R1, ensuring it remains attractive to enterprise customers. While short-term challenges may arise if OpenAI faces setbacks, the company's flexibility could help position Azure as a leading player in the long term, even in a market with reduced margins.

In addition, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) posted strong earnings on many fronts in fiscal Q2 2025. The company's revenue reached $69.6 billion, which showed a 12% growth from the same period last year. The company’s net income of $24.1 billion saw a 10% year-over-year rise. A significant driver of this growth was the 15% increase in revenue from Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services, bolstered by a 16% rise in Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) ended the quarter with a robust cash position, holding more than $17.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents. The company generated $22.2 billion in operating cash flow, an increase from $18.8 billion in the same period last year. Moreover, the company returned $9.5 billion to its investors through dividends and share buybacks. It currently offers a quarterly dividend of $0.83 per share and has a dividend yield of 0.80%, as of February 6. MSFT is one of the best dividend stocks on our list as the company maintains a 19-year streak of consistent dividend growth.

At the end of Q3 2024, 279 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held stakes in Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), the same as in the previous quarter. These stakes have a total value of more than $91 billion. Among these hedge funds, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust was the company’s leading stakeholder in Q3.

Overall MSFT ranks 2nd on our list of the best Dow Jones dividend stocks to invest in according to Wall Street analysts. While we acknowledge the potential for MSFT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MSFT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stock To Buy Now and Complete List of 59 AI Companies Under $2 Billion in Market Cap

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.