One of the biggest stories of last week was how Atkore Inc. (NYSE:ATKR) shares plunged 22% in the week since its latest first-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$65.57. Atkore missed revenue estimates by 2.8%, coming in atUS$662m, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.31 beat expectations, coming in 5.9% ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Atkore after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Atkore
After the latest results, the consensus from Atkore's seven analysts is for revenues of US$2.86b in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 6.6% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 43% to US$6.18 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.16 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 15% to US$85.71. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Atkore, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$115 and the most bearish at US$73.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Atkore's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Atkore going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Atkore (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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