It's been a mediocre week for SFL Corporation Ltd. (NYSE:SFL) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to US$9.44 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues of US$894m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.01, missing estimates by 3.1%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for SFL
After the latest results, the consensus from SFL's four analysts is for revenues of US$753.3m in 2025, which would reflect a definite 16% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.0084 in 2025, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$827.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.52 in 2025. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on SFL, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.
The consensus price target fell 5.8% to US$12.20, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on SFL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$14.00 and the most bearish at US$10.80 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 16% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that SFL's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting SFL to become unprofitable next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of SFL's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple SFL analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for SFL that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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