Shareholders might have noticed that International Seaways, Inc. (NYSE:INSW) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.3% to US$33.33 in the past week. International Seaways reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$952m and statutory earnings per share of US$8.38, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for International Seaways
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering International Seaways, is for revenues of US$781.3m in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 18% reduction in International Seaways' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 51% to US$4.17 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$904.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.12 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a real cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$58.63, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on International Seaways' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values International Seaways at US$82.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$38.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 18% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 28% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - International Seaways is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for International Seaways. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple International Seaways analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for International Seaways (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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