国内户用光伏行业：需求平稳强者恒强

中金公司2025-03-13

投资建议我们认为2024 年户用光伏需求下降有一定确认口径的影响，从2023 年以来，有相当一部分户用装机按照工商业口径备案，我们从各企业开发量以及部分省份的渠道代理反馈估算，2024 年户用光伏实际需求约增长7%至46GW左右。展望2025 年，我们预计国内户用在531 之前或并网全年70%以上的装机，而531 之后平台公司对代理商的支付价格将出现大幅下降以对冲电力市场化带来的资产价格下跌可能，...

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年国内实际户用需求约为46GW，同比约+7%。从国家能源局分省数据来看，传统户用大省和新兴地区的省份需求均显示以工商业装机为主，从我们渠道调研反馈来看，无论是传统河北省以及新兴的广西省都是户用渠道商近2 年开发的重要市场，市场前5 家平台公司的合计装机亦达到披露数字的120%。因此我们认为有相当一部分的户用需求被核算到了工商业口径中。中国目前户用渗透率低于10%，略高于美国，低于欧洲、日本、澳洲。截至2024 年底中国累计户用光伏装机约为162GW，约700 万户装机，我们估计全国累计渗透率约5~9.5%。高渗透率地区山东、河北、河南的渗透率水平约在15~20%。对比海外，美国约5%，加州约16.5%，欧洲、日本、澳洲在15%-20%，德国超过30%。我们认为当前的代理商+农户开发费用有较大下降空间，531 之后这一费用有望下调，有望支撑应对电力市场化以及新的开发商业模式，支撑行业需求的平稳。正泰电器：户用业务自由现金流拐点到来，安能分拆上市进一步优化正泰电器负债率及分红预期可能。随着平价电站自持增加、新增开发量放缓以及开发成本的下降，资方多元化和周转效率提升，我们测算公司户用业务的自由现金流拐点已经到来；正泰安能分拆上市之后具备独立的融资平台，可以降低公司负债率，提高正泰电器分红空间。低压电器盈利能力修复。公司2023 年10 月以来的4 次连续提价可以确定需求端的改善，在2022-2023 年的历史最低7%净利率表现后，公司2024 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国内户用光伏行业：需求平稳 强者恒强

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国内户用光伏行业：需求平稳强者恒强