Economists keep 2.6% forecast for Singapore’s 2025 growth, fewer expect looser MAS policy in April: survey

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[SINGAPORE] Private-sector economists maintained a median forecast of 2.6 per cent for Singapore’s 2025 growth – with 3.8 per cent growth expected in Q1 – and lowered their expectations for inflation,...

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For Q1 2025, headline inflation is predicted to be 1.5 per cent, and core inflation, 1.1 per cent.Compared to December’s survey, fewer respondents now expect monetary policy to be loosened in April’s upcoming meeting, with more expecting it in July instead.On Jan 24, MAS slightly reduced the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band, in the first loosening move since 2020.In the latest survey, 15.8 per cent of respondents expect another such move in April, down from 37.5 per cent in December’s survey. None expect changes to the position or slope of the band in April.Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.Instead, 29.4 per cent expect the slope to be reduced in July, up from 6.3 per cent in the last survey. In July, one respondent also expects the band to be re-centred lower, and one expects it to be widened.Of five broad sectors, economists’ full-year median growth forecast rose only for manufacturing, to 2.9 per cent from 2.7 per cent in the previous survey. Despite this, the growth forecast for non-oil domestic exports worsened to 2.8 per cent, from 3.5 per cent before.Expectations worsened significantly for the domestic-oriented accommodation and food services sector, to 2 per cent from 2.5 per cent before. The forecast also dipped to 3.4 per cent for construction, from 3.5 per cent before.Forecasts stayed the same for wholesale and retail trade, at 2.7 per cent, and finance and insurance, at 4 per cent.The unemployment rate is expected to be 2 per cent at end-2025, similar to 2.1 per cent in the previous survey.For 2026, economists expect growth to slow to 2.3 per cent, but headline inflation and core inflation to edge up to 1.8 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.The latest survey’s growth and inflation expectations for 2025 fall within official forecast ranges.The official forecast is for growth to moderate to between 1 and 3 per cent, down from 4 per cent in 2024. MAS expects headline inflation between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent, and core inflation between 1 and 2 per cent.The latest survey was sent to 25 professional forecasters on Feb 14, and received 20 responses. The survey reflects their views and not those of MAS.Geopolitical tensions, including from higher tariffs, remained the most-cited downside risk to the domestic outlook, named by all respondents – just as in December’s survey. All respondents also named it the top downside risk.Weaker growth in China was the second-most cited downside risk, cited by 43.8 per cent, followed by a resurgence in inflation, flagged by 18.8 per cent.For upside risks, more robust growth in China was cited the most, by 60 per cent, on a par with December. It was named the top upside risk by 13.3 per cent.Other key upside risks were a sustained tech cycle upturn, cited by about half, and milder-than-expected trade tensions, cited by a third.In the latest survey, the MAS refined its methodology for growth and inflation forecasts. Previously, respondents were given a set of ranges – for example, growth of above 5 per cent, growth of 4.5 to 4.9 per cent, and so on – and asked how probable each range was.\rIn the new survey, respondents were asked to give five specific estimates of their own, with a probability for each one.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.32.1","shortVersion":"4.32.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2520918600"}