North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Fall as Tariff Optimism Fades

Dow Jones03-25 10:01

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were pointing lower Tuesday, as investors struggled to make up their minds about how disruptive Trump's looming tariffs will be.

Investors remain on edge after nearly two months of chopping and changing trade policies.

Pepperstone still favors fading equity rallies in the short term.

"Uncertainty on the trade front is set to remain elevated for some time to come, with April 2 more likely to mark the start, than the end, of this long-running tariff saga."

On the economic-data front, the health of the housing market will be in focus Tuesday, with updates due this morning on house prices and sales of new homes.

A readout on consumer confidence is also due.

Stocks to Watch

Boeing was seeking to withdraw an earlier agreement to plead guilty in a long-running criminal case. Boeing shares edged down.

Cadence Bank received regulatory approvals required to complete its merger with FCB Financial. Shares rose 5%.

KB Home earnings missed analyst expectations and cut its revenue forecast. Shares fell 7.3%.

Tesla 's sales in the EU plunged for the second consecutive month in February. Shares traded lower.

Truth Social signed an agreement with Crypto.com. Shares rose almost 10%.

UniFirst will not be bought by Cintas. UniFirst Shares fell 8.9%.

Watch For:

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Prices Index for January; New Home Sales for February; Conference Board - Consumer Confidence for March; Earnings from GameStop, Smithfield Foods and McCormick .

Today's Headlines/Must Reads:

- How China Beat Out the U.S. to Become the Top Player in Rare-Earths Refining

- The Surprising Good News for Mall Owners: Forever 21's Bankruptcy

- Proposed Medicaid Cuts Would Devastate Local Economies: Report

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar rose as optimism over more targeted tariffs and stronger-than-expected services data soothed concerns about slowing economic growth.

The currency was also supported by investors buying the currency to rebalance their portfolios before month-end and quarter-end.

The dollar could turn lower as consumer confidence data later are likely to come in worse than expected, ING said.

"Even if the drop is a bit less pronounced than expected, markets may struggle to see much silver lining for the dollar."

The euro fell to a near three-week low against the dollar.

Markets "may not be expecting anything too big" from the German business confidence Ifo survey, ING said.

However, this leaves scope for a "positive surprise to lift the euro" if sentiment remains optimistic due to Germany's fiscal spending plans.

The euro could be set to rise if Russia and the U.S. announce a positive update on Ukraine ceasefire talks later, ING said separately.

Russia and the U.S. are expected to issue a joint statement Tuesday about the progress of negotiations.

Sterling could trade softer by the end of the week if the U.K. announces spending cuts in Wednesday's budget statement, Swissquote Bank said.

The currency would struggle to rise above the key $1.30 level unless the dollar suffers another selloff.

Bonds:

The 10-year Treasury yield needs to break either direction from its 20-basis-point range to build momentum, Pepperstone said.

"Zooming out, though, 10-year Treasurys remain stuck in a 4.15%-4.35% range, despite what's been incredibly choppy trade over the last three weeks or so."

It continued to favor risk-reward on offer for longs,it added.

The 10-year Treasury yield will likely trade in a range between 4.25% and 4.35% this week, ING said.

"Any attempt to make a material break above this would be constrained by worries about what 2 April brings."

It sees 4% as a hard floor for the 10-year Treasury yield that can only be broken on materially weak data.

"The area of 4.25% is a comfortable distance above that," it added.

Energy:

Oil prices rose on concerns over global supplies after Trump said the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela.

"The levies would impact major economies from China and India and Western Europe," ANZ said.

They "may also complicate business for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners that rely heavily on Venezuela's heavy crude to feed production lines."

Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report, OPEC and its allies will likely stick to their plan to raise output for a second consecutive month in May.

Metals:

Gold futures rose, and Trump's Venezuelan oil threats and the significant uncertainty that persists were keeping a price floor under the metal, Swissquote Bank said.

Gold chart

As long as gold remained above support at $2,900, its positive trading bias is likely to stay intact, RHB Retail Research said.

Uranium prices

Uranium spot prices have plunged while the term price remains steady as traders were gripped by uncertainty over geopolitics, Ord Minnett said.

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

Boeing Gets Lifeline in Pentagon Deal to Build Most Expensive Jet Fighter Ever

The U.S. is entrusting its most expensive jet-fighter program in history to a company that hasn't successfully launched a commercial or military aircraft in a decade.

Boeing was selected last week by the Pentagon to build the Air Force's next-generation manned jet fighter, beating out Lockheed Martin in a move that surprised Wall Street and left Lockheed disappointed.

   
 
 

Hyundai Motor Shares Rally After U.S. Investment Plan

Hyundai Motor's shares gained ground after it unveiled a new U.S. investment plan to help avoid President Trump's tariffs.

The South Korean automaker announced at the White House on Monday that it would invest an additional $21 billion in U.S.-based car manufacturing and supply chains for critical materials, including a $5.8 billion steel mill to be built in Louisiana.

   
 
 

Want to Invest in a Private Company Like SpaceX? All It Takes Is $5,000

It is getting easier to invest in high-risk, high-reward private companies.

Now, all it takes is $5,000 to buy a stake in a firm like SpaceX or OpenAI. EquityZen and Forge Global, which are marketplaces for trading shares of private companies, are lowering the minimum investment from tens of thousands of dollars, the firms plan to announce Tuesday.

   
 
 

China's Central Bank Tweaks Lending Tool in Sign of Policy Shift

China's central bank has tweaked the pricing for one-year loans to commercial lenders, a move seen as a fresh sign that it is loosening its monetary stance under a policy revamp.

The change effectively phases out the once-important medium-term lending facility rate, and could ease financial strains for the country's banks, analysts say.

   
 
 

SEC's Hester Peirce Discusses New Approach to Crypto and Cyber Rule Making

With new leadership at the Securities and Exchange Commission, cryptocurrency and cybersecurity executives wonder if the financial watchdog might lessen its bite over the next four years. The answer? It's complicated.

That's according to Commissioner Hester Peirce, a Republican who is heading up a new SEC task force designed to develop a governance framework for the thorny topic of supervising cryptocurrency.

   
 
 

Top Trump Officials Debated War Plans on Unclassified Chat Shared With Journalist

Senior Trump administration national-security officials held detailed discussions of highly classified U.S. plans to launch airstrikes against Yemen's Houthi militants using a nongovernment messaging service and mistakenly included a journalist in the conversation, U.S. officials said Monday.

The chats over the encrypted Signal app spanned days and included specific information about weapons, targets and timing used in the attack, according to the Atlantic magazine, whose editor, Jeffrey Goldberg, was inadvertently included in the discussion and who disclosed the texts.

   
 
 

Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades

Barriers to open trade are rising across the world at a pace unseen in decades, a cascade of protectionism that harks back to the isolationist fervor that swept the globe in the 1930s and worsened the Great Depression.

It isn't just President Trump's extensive new tariffs, which have set off a barrage of retaliatory measures across Europe, China and Canada targeting hundreds of U.S. goods.

   
 
 

Trump Prompts European Calls for a Homegrown Nuclear Umbrella

PARIS-Two weeks after Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron descended 20 stories beneath Paris to send a message to Moscow.

He entered France's nuclear bunker deep under his regal presidential palace to lead an exercise dubbed Poker. Officials had chosen that night, in March 2022, for its clear skies. They wanted to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who days earlier had made a thinly veiled threat to the West by putting his country's nuclear forces on high alert.

   
 
 

Write to nina.kienle@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Nothing major scheduled

Economic Indicators $(ET)$:

Nothing major scheduled

Stocks to Watch:

Ascot Resources 4Q Loss C$17M

New Found Gold Corp. Announces Initial Mineral Resource Estimate for Queensway Project

Ravelin Properties REIT Names Calvin Younger, Jane Rafuse as Trustees

   
 
 

Expected Major Events for Tuesday

05:00/JPN: Feb Tokyo area department store sales

05:00/JPN: Feb Nationwide department store sales

09:00/GER: Mar ifo Business Climate Index

11:00/UK: Mar CBI Distributive Trades Survey

12:55/US: 03/22 Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

13:00/US: Jan U.S. Monthly House Price Index

13:00/US: Jan S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

14:00/US: Feb New Residential Sales

14:00/US: Mar Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

14:00/US: Mar Consumer Confidence Index

17:00/US: Feb Money Stock Measures

20:30/US: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

23:50/JPN: Feb Services Producer Price Index

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

Expected Earnings for Tuesday

2seventy bio Inc $(TSVT)$ is expected to report $-0.20 for 4Q.

ACCESS Newswire Inc $(ACCS)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP (HOT.UN.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Aprea Therapeutics Inc $(APRE)$ is expected to report $-0.76 for 4Q.

Ascent Solar Technologies Inc $(ASTI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Beta Bionics Inc $(BBNX)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Canadian Solar $(CSIQ)$ is expected to report $-0.09 for 4Q.

CarParts.com Inc (PRTS) is expected to report $-0.18 for 4Q.

CorMedix Inc $(CRMD)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Core & Main Inc $(CNM)$ is expected to report $0.37 for 4Q.

Corvus Pharmaceuticals Inc $(CRVS)$ is expected to report $-0.12 for 4Q.

Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Inc (CYCC) is expected to report for 4Q.

Cytosorbents Corp $(CTSO)$ is expected to report $-0.03 for 4Q.

Dynacor Group Inc (DNG.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Epsilon Energy Ltd $(EPSN)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corp (FC.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Golden Minerals Co (AUMN,AUMN.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Gyre Therapeutics Inc (GYRE) is expected to report $0.04 for 4Q.

HilleVax Inc $(HLVX)$ is expected to report $-0.38 for 4Q.

LadRx Corp (LADX) is expected to report for 4Q.

MAG Silver Corp (MAG,MAG.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc $(MRVI)$ is expected to report $-0.07 for 4Q.

McCormick & Co Inc $(MKC)$ is expected to report $0.64 for 1Q.

Movado Group Inc $(MOV)$ is expected to report $0.39 for 4Q.

Netlist Inc (NLST) is expected to report $-0.04 for 4Q.

NuCana PLC - ADR $(NCNA)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Optiva Inc (OPT.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc $(ORMP)$ is expected to report $-0.19 for 4Q.

Phunware Inc $(PHUN)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Relmada Therapeutics Inc $(RLMD)$ is expected to report $-0.65 for 4Q.

Rumble Inc $(RUM)$ is expected to report $-0.11 for 4Q.

Sanara MedTech Inc $(SMTI)$ is expected to report $-0.04 for 4Q.

Smithfield Foods Inc $(SFD)$ is expected to report for 1Q.

Sphere 3D Corp (ANY) is expected to report for 4Q.

Spruce Biosciences Inc $(SPRB)$ is expected to report $-0.23 for 4Q.

Third Harmonic Bio Inc $(THRD)$ is expected to report $-0.32 for 4Q.

Vivani Medical Inc $(VANI)$ is expected to report $-0.12 for 4Q.

Worthington Enterprises Inc $(WOR)$ is expected to report $0.70 for 3Q.

X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc $(XFOR)$ is expected to report $-0.18 for 4Q.

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Inc $(ZNTL)$ is expected to report $-0.69 for 4Q.

Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Raised to Overweight From Neutral by JP Morgan

Azek Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Stephens & Co.

Azek Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by William Blair

Azek Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Baird

Choice Hotels Intl Raised to Neutral From Sell by Redburn Atlantic

Civitas Resources Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by BMO Capital

Coherent Raised to Strong Buy From Outperform by Raymond James

Coty Started at Buy by Berenberg

Cryoport Raised to Buy From Neutral by UBS

D&B Cut to Hold From Buy by Needham

Ecolab Cut to Neutral From Buy by Redburn Atlantic

Elevation Oncology Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Stephens & Co.

FedEx Raised to Buy From Hold by Jefferies

James Hardie Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie

James Hardie Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by Barrenjoey

James Hardie Upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley

Lennar Cut to In-Line From Outperform by Evercore ISI Group

Lensar Cut to Hold From Buy by Lake Street

Liberty Energy Cut to Sector Perform From Outperform by RBC Capital

Lockheed Martin Cut to Neutral From Buy by B of A Securities

Lumentum Holdings Raised to Strong Buy From Outperform by Raymond James

Mativ Holdings Raised to Buy From Hold by Stifel

Nexalin Technology Raised to Buy From Hold by Maxim Group

NOV Raised to Outperform From Sector Perform by RBC Capital

Nucor Raised to Buy From Neutral by UBS

Ovintiv Inc. Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by BMO Capital Markets

Pinterest Raised to Buy From Neutral by Guggenheim

Steel Dynamics Raised to Buy From Neutral by UBS

Valley National Bancorp Raised to Overweight From Neutral by Piper Sandler

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Raised to Buy From Neutral by Redburn Atlantic

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 25, 2025 06:01 ET (10:01 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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