March 27 - Barclays (BCS, Financial) has reduced its 2025 year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 5,900, down more than 10% from its prior estimate of 6,600, citing the risk of U.S. tariff actions weighing on the economy, according to a Wednesday note.
The index hovered near 5,728 during a volatile session. Barclays said the revised outlook reflects the potential drag from trade restrictions, which are expected to slow U.S. economic activity without triggering a recession.
The bank now projects S&P 500 earnings per share of $262, down from $271. It attributed the downgrade to the Trump administration's plan to implement new reciprocal tariffs starting April 2, including recent increases of 20% on Chinese imports and 25% on steel and aluminum shipments. Some tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada remain temporarily suspended.
Barclays estimated the tariffs could directly reduce S&P 500 earnings by 1.6%, with an additional 0.7% hit if other countries impose retaliatory measures. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs (GS, Financial) and RBC Capital Markets also lowered their S&P 500 targets, to 6,200 and 6,000, respectively.
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