SocGen Says It's Past Peak Pessimism for Canadian Dollar

MT Newswires03-26

If CFTC data tell Societe Generale anything about foreign exchange market positioning, recent trends suggest to the bank that the market is now very long Japan's yen and reasonably long of euro (EUR), while the only remaining shorts are in the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie), New Zealand (NZD), Swiss franc (CHF) and AUD.

The biggest futures market short in outright terms is still in CAD, but even that is shrinking, stated SocGen. This partly reflects a wider -- less positive -- view of the USD, but maybe it tells the bank
that markets are past peak pessimism about the impact of the United States tariff policy.

The futures market is now long Mexico's peso (MXN), for example.
There's no doubt that the U.S. tariff frenzy remains a threat to Canadian growth: The country facesa tougher task in dealing with U.S. tariffs than most, given geography and relative economic size.

But the USD/CAD peak was in early February and the CFTC data suggest that positioning has been shrinking since then, added SocGen.

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