Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT is trading at a premium to the Zacks Hotels and Motels industry, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.60X compared with the industry’s 21.65X. The stock is also valued higher than the S&P 500 index at 20.52X and the broader Consumer Discretionary sector at 17.62X. This valuation is above Hilton’s three-year median of 26.41X, signaling that the stock is priced for growth.
The company is also currently trading at a premium compared with similar players like Choice Hotels International, Inc. CHH, Marriott International, Inc. MAR and Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. HGV. CHH, MAR and HGV are trading with forward 12-month P/E multiples of 18.75, 22.61 and 10.06, respectively.
Hilton Stock Trades at Premium
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Although the premium valuation may raise some concerns, it underscores the market’s confidence in HLT's robust financial performance and continued growth potential. The stock has gained 7.1% in the past year against the industry’s 0.3% decline. The company is benefiting from higher revenue per available room (RevPAR), strong leisure travel demand and unit expansion efforts.
HLT Stock’s Price Performance
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Factors Favoring Hilton
Steady Growth in RevPAR Trends: Hilton continues to see steady growth in RevPAR, driven by strong leisure occupancy and a gradual recovery in business transient and group segments. In 2024, system-wide comparable RevPAR (on a currency-neutral basis) grew 2.7% year over year, driven by 0.8% growth in occupancy and a 1.6% rise in average daily rate. The company remains optimistic about sustained demand across all major segments, supported by corporate travel, conventions and expanding booking windows.
Expansion Efforts: HLT is focused on strengthening its global presence through expansion. The company is adding hotels, entering untapped markets and enhancing its brand portfolio. Recent acquisitions and brand developments highlight its efforts to drive long-term growth and cater to evolving travel demands.
In 2024, the company expanded its portfolio by adding 973 hotels and nearly 100,000 rooms, marking the largest single-year increase in its history and achieving a net unit growth of 7.3%. For 2025, Hilton expects net unit growth of 6-7%.
Optimistic Growth Prospects for 2025: Hilton remains optimistic about its performance in 2025, supported by strong travel demand and steady recovery across key segments. The company anticipates continued expansion and sustained momentum in both leisure and business travel. For 2025, the company expects RevPAR growth between 2% and 3%.
HLT anticipates growth across all major segments, with group performance driven by demand for company meetings and conventions. The company also expects a continued recovery in business transient, supported by large corporates, and stable demand from small and medium-sized businesses.
Analysts See Upside Despite Premium Valuation
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Despite its high valuation, Hilton’s upward revisions in earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 highlight analysts’ confidence in the stock. The projected 11.1% year-over-year EPS growth aligns with its premium pricing.
Factors Acting Against HLT
Macroeconomic Challenges: Uncertain financial conditions and rising interest rates continue to impact business operations. Limited capital availability and higher costs have created challenges for development, while economic pressures in key markets have led to slower growth and operational hurdles.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Hilton's RevPAR in China declined 4% year over year, impacted by weaker macroeconomic conditions and tough domestic travel comparisons. For 2025, the company expects RevPAR growth in Asia Pacific in the low to mid-single digits, with China anticipated to see low-single-digit growth.
High Costs: Increased costs are weighing on overall profitability, reflecting a challenging cost environment. In 2024, Hilton's total expenses as a percentage of revenues rose by 50 basis points year over year to 78.8%. The increase was primarily due to higher costs from managed and franchised properties, rising payroll and compensation expenses, and greater procurement volume from purchasing operations.
Technical Indicators: Bearish Trend
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Hilton’s stock is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), signaling weakness in the short and long terms. This suggests continued pressure on the stock, with no clear momentum shift in sight.
Conclusion: Hold HLT Stock for Now
Despite its high valuation, Hilton’s strong RevPAR trends, expansion efforts and steady demand across key travel segments position it for continued growth in 2025. While macroeconomic challenges, rising costs and regional headwinds pose risks, the company’s fundamentals remain solid.
Investors may want to monitor further developments, while existing shareholders could consider retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock in their portfolios, given its stable performance.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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