Chances of U.S. Recession Have Risen to 45%, Goldman Sachs Says -- WSJ

Dow Jones04-07

By Katy Barnato

The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months has risen, said a team at Goldman Sachs, citing policy uncertainty, foreign consumer boycotts and tighter financial conditions.

The bank's economists raised the odds on a recession to 45% from 35%, noting the tariffs unveiled Wednesday by the Trump administration were tougher than expected, and were quickly followed by retaliatory tariffs by China. This is Goldman's second uptick in its recession odds in two weeks.

Other voices on Wall Street have also cautioned about the possibility. On Monday, JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said levies would slow down the U.S. economy. "Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth," he said in his annual shareholders letter.

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April 07, 2025 08:38 ET (12:38 GMT)

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