By Anthony Harrup
The U.S. Energy Administration cut its expectations for global oil-demand growth and prices this year, citing uncertainty over the fallout from U.S. import tariffs and their effect on economic growth.
In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expects global oil consumption to grow by 900,000 barrels a day in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 1.3 million barrels a day. For 2026, the agency cut its consumption estimate to 1 million b/d from 1.2 million b/d.
"However, because the recent updates to trade policy widen the range of possible GDP growth outcomes, this forecast is subject to significant uncertainty," the EIA said.
With the lower demand growth and expected production increases by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers, the EIA estimates that global oil inventories will begin to increase in mid-2025.
The agency lowered its average price estimate for Brent this year to $68 a barrel from $74 a barrel in the previous month's outlook, and for 2026 to $61 a barrel from $68 a barrel. U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela "create additional uncertainty for crude oil prices," the EIA said.
The agency said analysis for the outlook was completed on April 7 and doesn't take into account more recent changes in policy. This week, the Trump administration suspended for 90 days reciprocal import tariffs that were set above 10%, allowing time to negotiate with countries that have contacted Washington, but it sharply increased tariffs on China after that country retaliated.
Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 10, 2025 12:52 ET (16:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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