The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0958 ET - Oil futures are gaining but off the morning's highs as demand concerns remain intact, with OPEC cutting its growth outlook for this year by 150,000 barrels a day. Oil price gains reflect the decline in Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar that's positive for European buyers, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. "However, we do not expect prices to rise significantly above this morning's high levels," he adds. WTI is up 0.3% at $61.71 a barrel, and Brent is up 0.4% at $65.04 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0955 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher along with oil and equities after electronic goods were given U.S. tariff relief over the weekend. The seasonal retreat in weather-driven demand is likely to increase the size of natural gas storage injections, which could shift inventories to a surplus by May, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Longer-term considerations may be more balanced by trader positioning pulled between recent losses and a fundamentally under-supplied outlook into 2026," he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.5% at $3.581/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0859 ET - Oil prices rise more than 1% in afternoon trade despite OPEC cutting its oil-demand forecast for this year, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs. Brent and WTI are up 1.4% to $65.67 and $62.38 a barrel, respectively, supported by President Trump's decision to give many tech products a reprieve from reciprocal tariffs and China reporting a rebound in crude imports. Still, mounting fears of a tariff-induced recession continue to weigh on the global oil-consumption outlook, capping further price gains. OPEC cut its global economic growth expectations and said it now forecasts oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels a day this year from 1.45 million barrels a day previously. Traders now await a closely watched oil-market monthly report from the International Energy Agency due on Tuesday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0705 ET - The effects of a tariff-weakened Canadian dollar on Canadian oil-and-gas pipeline operators should be transitory, Morningstar DBRS reckons. It expects the longer-term impact on credit ratings to be minimal once these projects are placed into service and start generating U.S. dollar-denominated cash flows. Looking at TC Energy and Enbridge, it estimates that a weaker loonie could temporarily dent the cost of their secured capital programs by about C$900 million because of the exposure to U.S. projects with U.S. dollar-denominated capital costs. But both should be able to offset this through U.S dollar-denominated Ebitda, Morningstar says. Pipeline operators with significant U.S. capital programs in the U.S. could feel a modest inflationary impact on budgets caused by a weaker Canadian dollar, but contractual protections and U.S. dollar-denominated cash flows should insulate their credit profiles in the medium term, it says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0700 ET - - U.S. tariffs and retaliatory actions taken by other countries have hurt the outlook for the global economy and commodity prices, but the weaker Canadian dollar that has come with the trade dispute has an unintended benefit for Canada's oil-and-gas producers, says Morningstar DBRS. Its analysis finds energy producers are able to offset the impact of a weak oil price, as most revenue is linked to U.S. dollar-denominated pricing benchmarks, while costs are incurred in Canadian dollars. It estimates total projected cash flows for the Canadian O&G industry would increase by about C$1.5 billion for every C$0.01 decline in the CAD/USD exchange rate. Still, Morningstar notes producers with material U.S. dollar-denominated debt face an increased interest burden in Canadian dollar terms that could hurt or squeeze cash flows. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0619 ET - U.S. shale producers are expected to slow down their activity further as oil prices are likely to remain below $65 a barrel, according to UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's Energy Survey indicates share oil companies need an average of $65 a barrel to profitably drill a new well. But trade war concerns and OPEC+'s larger-than-expected output hike have caused prices to drop. "Lower oil prices are likely to reduce U.S. oil supply growth slightly this year," Staunovo says. As a result, UBS lowered its U.S. oil liquids--which include crude and natural gas--supply forecast by 100,000 barrels a day to 400,000 barrels a day for 2025, with slower growth anticipated in the second half of the year. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0607 ET - U.S. tariffs are expected to weigh on the global economy and result in slower oil demand growth this year, according to UBS. "Some indicators [...] suggest that the oil market remains tight, but tariffs together with the ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. administration's next steps are likely to weigh on economic growth," strategist Giovanni Staunovo says. The bank lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 400,000 barrels a day to 800,000 barrels a day, and said it now expects an oversupply of 400,000 barrels a day from 100,000 barrels a day previously. Brent crude is forecast at an average of $68 a barrel from previous expectations of $80 a barrel, but UBS says it could fall to a $40-$60 range over the coming months if the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates further. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0555 ET - Shares in U.S. technology companies Apple and Nvidia climb in premarket trading, boosted by the U.S. administration's temporary exemption from the so-called reciprocal tariffs for some tech products. Apple's stock rises 5% to $208.14, having hit a premarket high of $210.8. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares are up 2% at $113.19, having risen as high as $115.44. Futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq climb 1.5%. Elsewhere, tech stocks in Europe rise in morning trade, with ASML Holding, Infineon Technologies and STMicroelectronics all gaining more than 3%, following gains in Asia. Foxconn Technology closed 3.3% higher, while Samsung Electronics closed up 1.8%. (najat.kantouar@wsj.com)
0544 ET - Sliding energy prices will keep eurozone inflation lower and could see the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate fall below 2% this year, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono write in a note. Oil and natural gas prices have fallen sharply since President Trump's announcement of sweeping trade tariffs earlier this month, with markets anticipating a global economic slowdown. Energy prices will likely decline further throughout 2025, keeping overall inflation steady at 2.2% until June, before dipping below 2% later in the summer, Pantheon expects. That will drive the ECB to cut rates this week and again in June, taking the key rate to 2%, and it could choose to continue cutting over the following months, Vistesen and Debono say. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0522 ET - John Wood has little choice but to accept Sidara's discounted takeover offer given its perilous position, AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould says. Shares have recently traded at all-time lows after key financial information was withheld from auditors, he notes. But this doesn't seem to have dissuaded Dubai-based Sidara, which has put forward a 35 pence a share proposal, Mould notes. It had previously offered 230 pence a share before walking away from a deal last summer. Management said it is looking at alternative refinancing options, but the fact the company said it is minded to recommend a firm offer is telling, Mould says. Shares are up 12% at 28.10 pence but remain down 80% over the past 12 months.(anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)
0430 ET - European natural-gas prices rise in early trade but remain below 35 euros a megawatt hour amid a series of bearish signals that could ease pressure on the region's depleted inventories. "The unfolding U.S.-China trade war has sparked speculation that more global fuel supplies will be available for Europe," ANZ Research analysts say. "The region is facing a tough challenge in building inventories back to mandated levels after a cold winter increased demand." However, ambassadors from EU countries backed a plan that would let members deviate by 10% from the bloc's requirement to fill gas storage to 90% of capacity by Nov. 1, pending approval by the European Parliament. EU gas caverns are currently 35.3% full, well below the previous year's level. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract rises 1.6% to 34 euros a megawatt hour, but is down nearly 20% on the month. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0345 ET - Oil prices tick higher as traders weigh the Trump administration's mixed signals on tariffs and China's commodity imports data. Brent crude and WTI are both up 0.3% to $64.95 and $61.66 a barrel, respectively. The U.S. exempted electronics like smartphones and computers from so-called reciprocal tariffs, but said these products might soon face separate levies as part of an investigation into semiconductors. Trump's tariffs pushed oil to a four-year low last week amid concerns over global economic growth and energy demand. Meanwhile, China's crude imports rebounded in March, with investors now waiting for the release of key economic indicators this week. "These data points will be key in assessing oil demand prospects as the tariff standoff with the U.S. continues," says Razan Hilal, market analyst at Forex.com. Traders also await OPEC's monthly oil-market report due later on Monday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 14, 2025 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)
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