财报后股价大跌，大摩发声：阿里云的增长逻辑没有变化！

华尔街见闻05-16

财报后股价大跌，但大摩认为阿里云战略完好，变现能力持续增强，市场的预期过高。周四晚，阿里公布的财报显示，集团第四财季营收同比增长7%但不及预期，净利润同比大幅增长。业绩发布后，阿里股价下跌约8%，明显跑输大盘。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利Gary Yu及其团队于周四发布研报称，尽管阿里最新财报略低于华尔街期望，但其阿里云的增长逻辑依然稳固，将继续受益于AI行业爆发性需求增长。报告中，大摩维持...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2535388108?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/10f5c108-7afd-4fa8-b131-c4aabb977436.jpeg","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-05-16 08:45","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2535388108","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"财报后股价大跌，大摩发声：阿里云的增长逻辑没有变化！","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>财报后股价大跌，但大摩认为阿里云战略完好，变现能力持续增强，市场的预期过高。\n周四晚，阿里公布的财报显示，集团第四财季营收同比增长7%但不及预期，净利润同比大幅增长。业绩发布后，阿里股价下跌约8%，明显跑输大盘。\n据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利Gary Yu及其团队于周四发布研报称，尽管阿里最新财报略低于华尔街期望，但其阿里云的增长逻辑依然稳固，将继续受益于AI行业爆发性需求增长。\n报告中，大摩维持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747208\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报后股价大跌，大摩发声：阿里云的增长逻辑没有变化！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报后股价大跌，大摩发声：阿里云的增长逻辑没有变化！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-16 08:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747208><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>财报后股价大跌，但大摩认为阿里云战略完好，变现能力持续增强，市场的预期过高。\n周四晚，阿里公布的财报显示，集团第四财季营收同比增长7%但不及预期，净利润同比大幅增长。业绩发布后，阿里股价下跌约8%，明显跑输大盘。\n据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利Gary Yu及其团队于周四发布研报称，尽管阿里最新财报略低于华尔街期望，但其阿里云的增长逻辑依然稳固，将继续受益于AI行业爆发性需求增长。\n报告中，大摩维持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747208\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"09988","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴-W","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747208","article_id":"2535388108","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/10f5c108-7afd-4fa8-b131-c4aabb977436.jpeg"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747208","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2535388108","pubTimestamp":1747356341,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"业绩发布后，阿里股价跌约8%，明显跑输大盘。大摩认为，这一下跌主要源于市场对阿里云业务增长的过高预期，考虑到行业需求超过供应、千问模型的协同优势和AI基础设施的持续投入，云业务的增长逻辑依然稳固，预计下一季度能实现22%的收入增长。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"translate_title":"After the financial report, the stock price plummeted, and Morgan Stanley voiced: Alibaba Cloud's growth logic has not changed!","themeId":"348efe6be6553a0cb6ea0b006e381544","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":1},"content_text":"财报后股价大跌，但大摩认为阿里云战略完好，变现能力持续增强，市场的预期过高。\n周四晚，阿里公布的财报显示，集团第四财季营收同比增长7%但不及预期，净利润同比大幅增长。业绩发布后，阿里股价下跌约8%，明显跑输大盘。\n据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利Gary Yu及其团队于周四发布研报称，尽管阿里最新财报略低于华尔街期望，但其阿里云的增长逻辑依然稳固，将继续受益于AI行业爆发性需求增长。\n报告中，大摩维持了对阿里巴巴的“增持”评级，维持目标价180美元不变。\n市场对云业务的预期过高，其增长逻辑依然稳固\n根据大摩分析，阿里的股价下跌主要源于市场对阿里云业务20%增长的过高预期，但实际公布的18%增速符合大摩的预测。\n另有分析指出，阿里云在收入增长并不大超预期的同时，本季度的利润率下滑幅度却比预料的更严重。本季实际调整后EBITA利润为24.2亿，利润率环比下降1.9pct，比市场预期低1.5pct。\n报告认为，阿里云第四季度出现的春节季节性因素和供应链波动掩盖了其真实增长潜力。根据报告，AI相关产品收入连续第七个季度保持三位数增长，这一趋势极具投资吸引力。\n大摩认为，阿里云的投资逻辑依然稳固，主要基于以下因素：\n\n\n行业需求超过供应：阿里作为唯一专注外部云业务的服务提供商将从行业繁荣中受益；\n\n\n千问模型的协同优势：阿里开源的千问3模型既有端侧应用，也有云端应用，二者相互配合增强客户粘性；\n\n\nAI基础设施持续投入：尽管短期可能影响利润率，但将支撑长期增长。\n\n\n报告还援引CEO吴泳铭在财报电话会上的发言指出，阿里云未来几个季度营收增速仍处于“上升通道”，管理层对此抱有“强烈信心”。\n此外，阿里管理层还在电话会上透露了两大关键趋势：一是在大中型企业中，AI应用从内部系统向用户侧场景渗透；二是AI产品用户从大中型企业延展到大量中小企业。\n吴泳铭在电话会上解释：\n\n“新的客户需求，大部分是推理应用或推理场景推动，而实际上他们真正的大规模上线可能是在后面几个月逐渐上线。也许是2月份、3月份，甚至4月份、5月份。”\n\n大摩预计，阿里云在2026财年第一财季（下一季度））将实现22%的收入增长，这将成为股价回升的重要催化剂。\n电商业务：变现效率持续提升，AI加持前景广阔\n四季度，阿里淘天集团(TTG)的客户管理收入(CMR)在第四季度实现12%的增长，显著超过分析师预期的9%。\n大摩指出，CMR增速继续领先于GMV增长，这一趋势预计将至少持续两个季度，主要得益于0.6%服务费的实施以及全站营销渗透率的提升。\n报告预计，阿里巴巴的GMV增长将与行业保持同步，其战略是通过在淘宝天猫平台嵌入AI功能提升用户参与度和使用频率。预计F1Q26 CMR将增长10%，核心业务调整后EBITA增长6%，这已考虑了对内容、用户获取和补贴的再投资。\n阿里估值仍处合理范围内\n值得注意的是，阿里在过去12个月已回购约119.9亿美元股票，并宣布2025财年每股美国存托凭证2美元的股息(常规1.05美元+特别0.95美元)，总计分红46亿美元。按照报告，阿里去年向股东共返还165亿美元。\n大摩预计，2026财年阿里总收入同比增长8%，客户管理收入增长7%，云收入增长25%。集团调整后EBITA预计增长10%，尽管考虑到AI和本地服务的增加投入，但将被淘天持续货币化和其他业务亏损收窄所部分抵消。\n报告还表示，目前阿里的F2026年预期市盈率仅为12倍，而大摩的目标价意味着16倍F2027年市盈率，仍处于合理估值范围内。\n~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\n以上精彩内容来自追风交易台。\n更详细的解读，包括实时解读、一线研究等内容，请加入【追风交易台▪年度会员】\n追风交易台由华尔街见闻和智堡联合打造；\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2535388108","isCrawlerRequest":true}