China Trade Deal Slightly Improves U.S. Outlook, Nomura Says -- Market Talk

Dow Jones05-13

0329 GMT - A trade deal with China only slightly improves the outlook for the U.S., say Nomura analysts in a commentary. The latest agreement resulted in a cut in reciprocal tariffs on a larger-than-expected level, although the it only affects just 6.5% of U.S. imports, the analysts note. Imports from China is the equivalent to just over 13% of total U.S. imports, while about half of Chinese imports to the U.S. are already exempt from the 145% tariffs, they note. Nomura increased their 4Q 2025 on-year GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points in its baseline and benign scenarios, to 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, the analysts say. If reciprocal tariffs are reverted to levels declared on Trump's so-called Liberation Day, a recession would still be the most likely outcome, with 4Q 2025 GDP expected to decline 1.4% on year. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 12, 2025 23:29 ET (03:29 GMT)

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