Oil Markets Overdo Fears of Recession, OPEC Overhang -- Market Talk

Dow Jones2025-05-15

1434 ET - Concerns about higher OPEC production has likely kept oil from joining the rally in growth-sensitive metals, while fears of collateral damage to demand from an "imaginary recession" are overdone, says Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX. He shrugs off concerns about a Saudi-led price war with the decision by OPEC+ to step up its pace of production increases, noting the group's reiteration that the moves could be paused or reversed. "Iraq and Kazakhstan were overproducing, and they couldn't do much about it," he says. "If they wanted to maintain credibility, they had to change the target and that's probably what they did." A rise in summer demand, including travel in the Middle East for the Haj pilgrimage, is also likely behind OPEC's positive view of demand, Deluard adds. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2025 14:34 ET (18:34 GMT)

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He shrugs off concerns about a Saudi-led price war with the decision by OPEC+ to step up its pace of production increases, noting the group's reiteration that the moves could be paused or reversed. \"Iraq and Kazakhstan were overproducing, and they couldn't do much about it,\" he says. \"If they wanted to maintain credibility, they had to change the target and that's probably what they did.\" A rise in summer demand, including travel in the Middle East for the Haj pilgrimage, is also likely behind OPEC's positive view of demand, Deluard adds. 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He shrugs off concerns about a Saudi-led price war with the decision by OPEC+ to step up its pace of production increases, noting the group's reiteration that the moves could be paused or reversed. \"Iraq and Kazakhstan were overproducing, and they couldn't do much about it,\" he says. \"If they wanted to maintain credibility, they had to change the target and that's probably what they did.\" A rise in summer demand, including travel in the Middle East for the Haj pilgrimage, is also likely behind OPEC's positive view of demand, Deluard adds. 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