Commerzbank Back on Top of UniCredit's Agenda -- Market Talk

Dow Jones07-04

0901 GMT - Italy's UniCredit will be able to focus on its pursuit of Commerzbank as it looks likely to withdraw its bid for domestic peer Banco BPM, AlphaValue says in a research note. UniCredit's CEO wrote to the German Chancellor about the future of Commerzbank. The probability of a bid on Commerzbank is low but is the best case scenario as it could boost UniCredit's value by up to 15%, analyst David Grinsztajn says. A somewhat likely alternative sees it remaining a strategic shareholder with a positive but more modest valuation impact of less than 5%. The analyst also considers a merger of equals between Commerzbank and UniCredit's German subsidiary HVB, which would seem politically correct but suboptimal in terms of capital and quite improbable. A withdrawal is highly probable and would have no valuation impact, he adds. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 04, 2025 05:01 ET (09:01 GMT)

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UniCredit's CEO wrote to the German Chancellor about the future of Commerzbank. The probability of a bid on Commerzbank is low but is the best case scenario as it could boost UniCredit's value by up to 15%, analyst David Grinsztajn says. A somewhat likely alternative sees it remaining a strategic shareholder with a positive but more modest valuation impact of less than 5%. The analyst also considers a merger of equals between Commerzbank and UniCredit's German subsidiary HVB, which would seem politically correct but suboptimal in terms of capital and quite improbable. A withdrawal is highly probable and would have no valuation impact, he adds. 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