Tesla Deliveries Drop Most in History. Why Did the Stock Jump 5%?

Dow Jones07-03

Tesla delivered 384,122 cars in the second quarter, down 13.5% from the 444,000 delivered in the second quarter of 2024 but very close to the Wall Street consensus estimate of about 386,000 vehicles.

It was the worst quarterly decline in the company's history. Still, the result was better than feared and up from the 337,000 delivered in the first quarter of 2025. The latest analysts' estimates heading into the report were in the range of 355,000 vehicles.

Tesla stock closed up 5% at $315.65 on Wednesday.

Investors were braced for bad news. Most of the intra-quarter sales data weren't good. Tesla's sales in Europe fell about 37% year over year in April and May combined. Tesla's quarterly sales in China, based on weekly numbers tracked by Citi analyst Jeff Chung, declined more than 10% year over year.

Tesla's sales growth has been affected by a few things. Elon Musk's position in the Trump administration turned off some core buyers, politically left-leaning people looking to go green. Tesla management acknowledged brand challenges during Tesla's first-quarter earnings conference call in April. Trade tensions between China and the U.S. also had some Chinese car buyers avoiding American-made products, according to Wall Street analysts.

Second-quarter numbers were a relief. Still, estimates for the second quarter of 2025 started at about 500,000 vehicles. They started to drop precipitously after first-quarter deliveries fell 13% year over year, missing Wall Street estimates by some 40,000 vehicles. Until the second quarter, that result was the worst year-over-year decline since the company introduced the Model S sedan in 2012.

Tesla stock should have a good day on Tuesday, considering the starting point. Coming into Wednesday, Tesla stock had fallen for six consecutive days, losing almost 14% over that span.

The path of Tesla shares, however, is notoriously difficult to project on a short-term basis. The stock rose 5.3% after the company reported disappointing first-quarter deliveries, partly because of news that CEO Elon Musk would be spending less time in Washington and more time at Tesla.

With deliveries in the books, second-quarter earnings will arrive in a few weeks, on July 23. Wall Street currently expects earnings per share (EPS) of $44 cents, according to FactSet, down from 52 cents reported in the second quarter of 2024. At the start of 2025, Wall Street expected second-quarter EPS of 85 cents.

A solid delivery result likely means there won't be many more adjustments to the second-quarter EPS forecast.

Aside from earnings, Tesla produced 410,244 vehicles in the quarter, meaning it built inventory. That will impact cash flow and inventories, and could impact pricing in the coming months. Tesla also delivered 9.6 gigawatt hours of energy storage in the quarter, up from 9.4 gigawatt hours delivered in the second quarter of 2024, and down from 10.4 gigawatt hours delivered in the first quarter. After cars, stationary storage is Tesla's next-largest business.

Along with earnings, Tesla investors will expect an update on the company's next model, which is due any day now. "We're still planning to release models this year," said Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle engineering at Tesla, during the company's first-quarter earnings conference call.

Details of the new model, however, have been thin. Investors are hoping that it will be enough to reinvigorate sales growth.

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Comments

  • Guavaxf30
    07-03
    Guavaxf30
    It's a reversed sell-on-news effect.  But if you drill down to fundamentals, this is still a pretty dismay result. We should be careful when deliveries falls at record level and yet the retail market is cheering this.  And on top of this, especially concerning, Trum vs Musk 2.0 has just started. Wait till after the Congress confirms the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill). 
  • Imthiyas
    07-03
    Imthiyas
    Because he is going to be deported, and his company going to be taken in public and trump going to run Tesla, Haha you idiot columnist, you may write this type of stupid things, Simple whatever you tell bad about Tesla it is going to emerge stronger,,Mark my words ,I am the staunch supporter of Tesla, guys next time when This Dow Jones's send any bad news about Tesla don't throw your shares, 
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