特斯拉销量继续下滑，机器人+Robotaxi的AI战略是否有用？

芝能汽车07-06

芝能汽车出品2025年第二季度，特斯拉全球销量连续第二个季度下滑，交付量同比下降13.5%，欧美市场持续疲软，中国市场则基本持平。在Robotaxi项目尚处试点阶段、人形机器人Optimus量产目标延迟、美国的退税政策已经确定的情况下，特斯拉正面临多重挑战。我们讨论下特斯拉接下来会往哪里走。Part 1Model Y 改款与区域市场失衡2025年第二季度，特斯拉全球汽车交付总量为38.4万辆，同比...

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改款与区域市场失衡2025年第二季度，特斯拉全球汽车交付总量为38.4万辆，同比减少13.5%，继第一季度的13%下滑后，再次出现负增长。从各地区表现来看，只能说第二季度比第一季度要好一些。二季度特斯拉在欧洲交付情况，有点区域看似不错——比如英国卖出了将近一万辆，挪威也有九千多辆，法国、德国、西班牙的数字也不算低。尤其是在6月，不少国家都迎来了一波集中交付的小高潮。在德国这个欧洲最大的电动车市场，特斯拉Q2总共交付不到4000辆；在奥地利、瑞士、葡萄牙等市场，季度销量也都在2000辆上下，谈不上强势。更关键的是，四五月的交付相对疲软，几乎全靠6月冲刺把数据“拉”上来。目前，特斯拉的产品更新节奏明显滞后，市场上流通的仍是Model 3与Model Y为主的组合。2025年3月起推出了新版Model Y，但该车型交付速度是比较慢的，换代期造成了明显的销量空窗，导致第二季度整体交付表现未能回升。接下来主要看Model Y改款后的◎Model Y Air：精简版本，面向价格竞争的低成本产品◎Model Y 六座版：面向中国家庭需求的产品。美国这边的销量是个巨大的问题，目前美国基本确定提前终止电动汽车退税补贴、取消2035年禁燃计划等举措，对特斯拉在美国本土的中长期销量构成直接冲击。目前特斯拉在美国的销量大质在4.2万-5万之间，如果退税补贴没有，可能会有一定幅度的下降。特斯拉的全球市场布局在2025年表现出明显的失衡，单一车型依赖、定价空间受限与政治因素交织，使短期销量恢复压力骤增。当然接下来主要看Model Y 后续的应对，可能Q3会有一些惊喜。Part 2人形机器人与Robotaxi：AI战略的技术挑战在汽车主业压力上升的同时，特斯拉将未来增长寄托于自动驾驶与人形机器人两大方向。从技术进展与组织执行力来看，这些项目距离成为可复制、可盈利的业务仍有不小距离。◎Robotaxi项目已于2025年6月底在美国得州奥斯汀启动首个试点，测试车为部分配有安全员的Model Y，服务范围受限，仅对受邀客户开放。按照规划，特斯拉将在一年内推广数十万辆具备自动驾驶功能的Robotaxi。但目前尚未获得完全无人驾驶的监管批准，系统依然基于FSD Beta架构，依赖于视觉识别+合成数据训练，对路况变化、法规适应等问题的应对能力仍存挑战。现阶段，Robotaxi更像是一项“宣传样本”，距离成为真正意义上的商业化出行平台仍有诸多不确定因素。◎相比Robotaxi，Optimus人形机器人项目进展更加缓慢。今年上半年，原定量产5000台的计划基本无法实现。截至5月底，仅生产了约1000台，实际投入使用的功能也极为有限，目前仅用于电池车间的简单搬运任务，效率甚至不及人类工人一半。技术问题仍在制约Optimus的发展。关节电机过热、传动寿命短、手部操作力弱、续航时间不足等问题尚未解决。为此，特斯拉正在寻找多个新的供应商，尝试三种不同灵巧手方案，同时调整硬件设计与模型训练逻辑。这些改进预计至少需要两个月，零部件采购已被暂停。Optimus团队原负责人离职后，项目由特斯拉AI副总裁接手。其试图将FSD经验迁移到人形机器人开发中，但机器人在操作环境感知、动作序列控制、自主判断等方面的复杂性远高于自动驾驶。目前公开展示的机器人动作，仍多由远程遥控完成，自主化程度有限。从硬件投入来看，特斯拉已采购超过1200台Optimus的零件，按单台成本6万美元计算，今年投入资金接近3亿美元。这背后是一个逾400人团队与数百家供应链企业支撑的生态体系。但在产品未能稳定量产、应用场景未能拓展前，这种投入更多是一种战略性建设而非商业化行为。特斯拉在自动驾驶与机器人领域持续下注，但目前两条路径均面临显著的技术与工程难题。Robotaxi尚处测试初期，Optimus则因技术瓶颈与组织调整暂缓推进。特斯拉若无法在一年内形成可见成果，围绕AI战略的转型可能遭遇外部质疑，特别是销量也没稳住，AI大踏步的进行也没好的支撑。小结2025年中期，特斯拉正处于内部组织、外部市场与技术转型的三重转折点。核心车型竞争力减弱，主要市场销量承压，前沿项目进度滞后。在传统业务增长放缓的同时，马斯克将希望寄托于Robotaxi与人形机器人，但现实中这两条路径仍面临重重技术壁垒和落地难题，我们持续观察特斯拉这家公司下半年的表现。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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