MW Don't fade the stock market yet, says former Goldman tactical strategist now at Citadel
By Steve Goldstein
Scott Rubner, a former Goldman Sachs tactical strategist now at Citadel Securities, said it's too soon to fade the stock market given factors including corporate stock buybacks - but it's getting late.
In his first published note at Citadel, Rubner puts the current market rally in inning seven of nine.
"For the next one month, I am bullish on U.S. equities led by fundamental earnings and positive flow dynamics," he said. Companies have a low bar in earnings to beat, particularly with a weaker dollar providing positive translation effects for tech companies.
July seasonals, he adds, are exceptional for U.S. stocks. Since 1928, July is the best performing month of the year for the S&P 500 SPX, while September is the worst.
August is one of the best months of the year for corporate share repurchases, he notes. By market cap, most of the S&P 500 will have reported results by Aug. 1, so they can resume buying stock.
The decline in volatility VIX also is a factor helping stocks. "Volatility is no longer the coach directing plays from the sidelines, it is the star quarterback in the middle of huddle," he says.
But he's wary about the autumn. "During mid-August, I am recommending investors add equity index hedges for September month-end. This may take advantage of lower implied volatility to hedge any macro events. September 2nd (post Labor Day) typically marks the highest point for the month over the past 100 years," says Rubner.
The S&P 500, up 7% this year, closed Wednesday close to a record high, as the Nasdaq Composite COMP did notch a new record.
-Steve Goldstein
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July 17, 2025 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT)
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