By Reshma Kapadia
Drowning in tariff news? Investors should focus on a few key developments. President Donald Trump this past week warned of 100% Russian tariffs if he doesn't get a Ukraine peace deal in 50 days. Also on the table: possible levies on countries buying Russian oil, gas, and other exports -- namely China, India, and Brazil.
Those levels could rattle markets. And tariffs hitting buyers of Russian goods could signal that Trump is moving from using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as his rationale, says Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners' head of economic policy research. On Monday, Trump said trade could be used for noneconomic purposes.
Another issue: more sectoral tariffs on national security grounds. Trump has imposed steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs, and floated 50% levies on copper and 200% on pharmaceuticals, with critical minerals, aircraft, trucking, and chips pending.
Circle three dates: On July 31, a federal court tackles Trump's use of IEEPA for tariffs. Aug. 1 is a big tariff deadline. The European Union is holding off on tariffs on 21 billion euros of U.S. goods as it tries to get a deal. Auto levies have been a sticking point with Japan, but analysts are watching for a framework deal, with Japan possibly trading the purchase of more U.S. oil for dropping some sectoral tariffs. On Aug. 12, tariffs on China snap back. The U.S. wants a meeting between China's Xi Jinping and Trump. A sign of a thaw?
Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com
Last Week
Markets
President Donald Trump said the European Union and Mexico would pay 30% tariffs by Aug. 1 and warned he'd hit Russia with "perhaps 100%" secondary tariffs unless it agreed to a Ukraine cease-fire in 50 days; the "secondary" refers to levies on countries buying Russian goods, namely China, India, and Brazil. June consumer prices edged up. Stocks rose after the U.S. approved Nvidia sales of H20 artificial-intelligence chips to China. Trump denied he was firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Bitcoin set new highs as Congress passed two crypto bills. On the week, the Dow industrials fell a mere 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite 1.5%.
Companies
Amazon.com said its Prime Days had record sales; doubling the days to four helped. SpaceX is investing $2 billion in Elon Musk's xAI, and Musk said he wants Tesla shareholders to vote on backing the AI start-up. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup kicked off 2Q earnings season by beating expectations. BlackRock fell after reporting that an Asian client redeemed $52 billion from its index funds. Meta Platforms settled its $8 billion shareholder suit over privacy issues after the first day of trial. Trade Desk joined the S&P 500, replacing Ansys, acquired by Synopsys.
Deals
Chevron sealed its $53 billion Hess deal after beating Exxon Mobil in arbitration over assets in Guyana...The Wall Street Journal reported two potential deals: Aquarian Holdings to buy Brighthouse Financial, and Union Pacific to buy Norfolk Southern.
Next Week
Monday 7/21
Earnings season kicks into high gear with about 100 S&P 500 companies reporting on the week. Verizon Communications announces results on Monday, followed by Coca-Cola, Danaher, and Texas Instruments on Tuesday. Alphabet, AT&T, IBM, ServiceNow, Tesla, and T-Mobile US release quarterly results on a tech-heavy Wednesday. Blackstone, Honeywell International, and Intel hold conference calls on Thursday to discuss earnings.
Wednesday 7/23
The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for June. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of four million homes sold, roughly even with May. Sales of existing homes are near 15-year lows.
Thursday 7/24
S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes for July. Consensus estimates are for a 52.7 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 53.1 for the Services PMI. Both indexes came in at 52.9 in June.
The Census Bureau reports new-home sales for June. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 new single-family homes sold, 27,000 more than in May.
The Numbers
16%
North American movie box office gross sales this year over 2024, buoyed by summer hits.
14%
Rise in U.S. students applying to U.K. universities for the coming year, highest since records began.
$18 B
Amount of catastrophe bonds sold so far this year by insurers, a record, beating all of last year's $17.7 billion.
$124 B
The value of China's 176 Belt and Road investment deals over the first six months of 2025, a record.
Write to Robert Teitelman at bob.teitelman@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 18, 2025 18:37 ET (22:37 GMT)
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