It feels as if every quarterly earnings report is a big deal for Tesla. And, yes, the coming second-quarter report, due Wednesday, is important for the electric-vehicle maker.
A lot has happened. Investors want to know about AI, car sales, CEO Elon Musk’s time, his political ambitions, and how changing U.S. policy might impact the auto maker.
Tesla shares were up 1.4% in early trading Monday at $334.48, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both up 0.3%.
For the quarter, Wall Street expects earnings per share of about 39 cents from sales of $22.1 billion, according to a FactSet poll of analysts’ estimates. A year ago, Tesla reported earnings per share of 52 cents from sales of $25.5 billion. Sales and earnings are set to sink along with vehicle sales. Tesla sold about 384,000 cars in the second quarter of 2025, down 13.5% year over year.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo is taking a “cautious stance ahead of [a] busy EPS report.” He sees risk to full year earnings estimates arising from Tesla’s delay to its lower-priced vehicle, which was supposed to be unveiled in the first half of 2025, and the loss of the federal EV purchase tax credit that President Donald Trump eliminated in his tax bill.
Both things could further reduce sales volumes. Kallo rates shares Hold and has a $320 price target for shares.
RBC analyst Tom Narayan rates shares Buy and has a $319 target. Narayan still believes that a lower-priced car is coming and can help boost sales later in the year. Investors will have to see what Tesla management says about new models.
Both analysts expect an update from Tesla about AI-trained robo-taxis and robots. Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. The company plans to start selling significant volumes of humanoid robots in 2026.
There is more to the policy discussion than just the federal EV purchase tax credit elimination. Congress revoked a California waiver that gave it the right to regulate its air emissions. California law was the basis for much of Tesla’s zero-emission vehicle credit sales. Tesla sold $595 million worth of ZEV credits in the first quarter. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan expects ZEV credit sales to decline materially in the second quarter and continue to decline in the third quarter. He rates Tesla shares Sell and has a $120 price target for the stock.
After all the auto fundamentals, there is Elon Musk. He left Washington in May and then began publicly feuding with President Trump, even threatening to start a new political party. Over the weekend, he said he was sleeping at his company’s office again.
Investors want to hear from Musk and judge his mind-set. Most investors know Musk is key to Tesla’s future and key to its valuation multiple. Tesla trades for roughly 180 times estimated 2025 earnings, according to FactSet.
It’s been a hectic quarter for Tesla. That makes for a potentially wild earnings call. Investors, as is often the case with Tesla, don’t know exactly what to expect.
Options markets imply Tesla will move about 7%, up or down, following earnings. Shares have moved about 11% following the prior four earnings reports, rising three times and falling once over that span.
Coming into Monday trading, Tesla stock was down about 18% so far this year, but up about 38% over the past 12 months.
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