Asia Week Ahead: Inflation, Trade Data, and PMI Reports

MT Newswires08-04

Several inflation readings and major trade data are expected this week, while some countries are due to report their gross domestic product figures.

China will release its trade balance for June, while the Philippines, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan will report on inflation data this week.

India's central bank will convene for a policy decision, and the Bank of Japan will release the meeting minutes for its most recent rate decision.

Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to report their Q2 GDP figures.

Elsewhere, S&P Global will release its reading on a number of countries' private sector economies.

Here's a day-by-day breakdown of what to expect in Asia this week.

MONDAY, Aug. 4

The Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge showed a sharp 0.9% rise in July, up from just 0.1% in June.

Despite the jump, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target range.

The increase was largely driven by higher prices in recreation and housing-related categories.

If home prices continue to outpace income growth, any affordability gains from lower interest rates could be quickly eroded, Westpac warned in a report.

TUESDAY, Aug. 5

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes will be due earlier in the day, with observers awaiting commentary on the central bank's decision to keep rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Indonesia is expected to release its Q2 GDP report on Tuesday. The nation of over 280 million people is expected to report a 4.8% year-over-year growth in GDP, according to consensus data from Trading Economics.

Meanwhile, inflation reports from the Philippines and South Korea are also due.

On the activity front, S&P Global will release July PMI data covering private sector performance in Hong Kong and Singapore. Composite and Services PMI readings are also scheduled for Australia, India, and Japan.

Separately, China's Caixin PMI report for July, monitored for its focus on smaller and private-sector firms, will also be released. Singapore will report July retail sales data on the same day.

WEDNESDAY, Aug. 6

The Reserve Bank of India is set to announce its interest rate decision, with markets widely expecting the central bank to keep rates steady at 5.50%.

The RBI surprised markets in its previous meeting with a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point repo rate cut. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the move was aimed at lowering borrowing costs amid improving inflation dynamics.

The central bank also shifted its policy stance from 'Accommodative' to 'Neutral' and revised its inflation outlook downward. Still, analysts at ING expect at least one more 25-bps cut later this year to support weakening growth.

Midweek inflation data will also come from Thailand and Taiwan, both due to report July consumer price figures.

Elsewhere, Vietnam is scheduled to release its latest industrial production and retail sales data.

New Zealand will report its second-quarter unemployment rate, while the Philippines will publish labor market figures for June.

THURSDAY, Aug. 7

China's July trade data will take center stage. Exports are expected to grow 5.1% year-over-year, slowing from June's 5.8%, according to Trading Economics.

The outlook remains clouded by trade tensions, as Beijing has yet to finalize a deal with the Trump administration. A truce on tariffs is set to expire on Aug. 12, raising the risk of renewed "reciprocal" duties.

All eyes would be on China's balance of trade figures Thursday as the Asian powerhouse releases import and export data for the month of July.

Trading Economics estimates that China's export growth will slow to 5.1% from the 5.8% recorded in June as Beijing is yet to finalize a trade deal with the Trump administration, raising fears that "reciprocal" tariffs are due to resume after a truce expires on Aug. 12.

Australia will also release its June trade balance on the same day. A recent CommBank Research report suggests Australia may be relatively unscathed from U.S. tariff action.

While a 10% baseline tariff is expected to take effect on Aug. 7, the impact on GDP is forecast to be limited, "just 0.3% lower over a few years" as only 5% of Australian exports go to the U.S, the report said.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines will publish its second-quarter GDP report and June industrial production data. Malaysia is also due to release industrial output figures, while Thailand will report consumer confidence data for July.

FRIDAY, Aug. 8

The Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from the latest policy meeting.

Taiwan is scheduled to publish its trade data for the month of July, while Indonesia and Malaysia will report retail sales figures for June.

SATURDAY, Aug. 9

China will release its consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) figures for the month of July.

Markets widely expect July's consumer inflation to turn negative year-on-year, with a consensus forecast of -0.1%, according to Trading Economics. Beijing previously reported a 0.1% rise in June.

Meanwhile, the PPI rate of decline was expected to slow to 3.2% year over year from the 3.6% fall recorded a month prior. Still, this would be the 34th consecutive month of producer deflation.

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