AGS WEEK AHEAD: Mixed Outlook as Brazilian Real Edges Up Against U.S. Dollar

Dow Jones08-19
 

By Joe Hoppe

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week Aug. 18-Aug. 22 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is mixed as certain currencies edge up against the U.S. dollar in relatively thin trading.

The Brazilian real rises against the U.S. dollar, while the Australian dollar and Chinese yuan remain rangebound, a positive for demand as a weaker U.S. dollar makes it cheaper for international purchasers to buy agricultural commodities. New U.S. corn sales were solid last week, though soybean exports were very poor, as China continued to buy solely from Brazil rather than the U.S.

Grain futures are relatively mixed ahead of the President Trump-Volodymyr Zelensky meeting, which investors hope will ease safe-haven demand, and as the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour gets underway, according to AgRural. Traders on the tour expect robust production, a headwind for grain prices.

U.S. weather forecasts show cooler temperatures starting from the middle of the week and there are heavy rains heading towards Minnesota and Wisconsin, which should help production, Peak Trading analysts said in a note.

Seasonal demand for grains and oilseeds will likely stay subdued until early October. Any short-term rallies will be difficult to sustain, given limited export prospects at this time of year, good weather and remaining supply ahead of a record harvest.

Chicago wheat futures are down 0.4% at $5.25 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.1% on $4.06 a bushel. Soybean prices are up 0.2% at $10.45 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have reported a relatively mixed performance over the last week, with coffee and sugar up and cocoa prices slipping.

Arabica coffee futures are up more than 4.7% on week in relatively thin trading, supported by reports of a light frost in Brazilian production regions of southern Minas Gerais and Cerrado Mineiro, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said in a note. At the same time, U.S. tariffs on Brazilian imports have delayed shipments and clouded U.S. supply prospects, Hansen added.

Despite a decline in the year to date, cocoa prices remain historically elevated, supported by issues in powerhouse producers Ghana and Ivory Coast. These issues, largely driven by adverse weather, should keep prices elevated for the foreseeable future, BMI analysts said.

On Monday, cocoa is down 0.2% at $8,169 a metric ton, while coffee is up 0.4% at $3.35 a pound. Sugar is down 0.7% at $0.16 a pound.

 

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 18, 2025 12:38 ET (16:38 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment