Nucor And Reliance Seen As Steel's Strongest Defenders Against Market Challenges

Benzinga_recent_news09-13

The North American steel sector is grappling with weak pricing and muted demand growth, leaving investors cautious in the absence of clear catalysts. With Steel Dynamics STLD and Nucor Corporation NUE...

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HRC prices down 6%, but mills gaining market share & utilization up.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1992135472.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0302445910.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE EQUITY \"A\" ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","ADI":"亚德诺","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1861214812.USD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 USD","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1861219969.SGD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 SGD-H","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2272731600.USD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AM Dis USD","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU1670711123.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","BK4512":"苹果概念","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0788109121.HKD":"BGF WORLD MINING \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","LU0724618433.USD":"BGF NEW ENERGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0075056555.USD":"贝莱德世界矿业基金A2","HRC":"希尔罗控股","NUE":"纽柯钢铁","LU1670711040.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4006":"钢铁","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU1023059493.AUD":"Blackrock World Mining A2 AUD-H","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"translate_title":"纽柯钢铁公司和信实集团被视为钢铁公司应对市场挑战的最强有力捍卫者","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NUE":1,"HRC":1,"ADI":1},"content_text":"The North American steel sector is grappling with weak pricing and muted demand growth, leaving investors cautious in the absence of clear catalysts.\nWith Steel Dynamics STLD and Nucor Corporation NUE set to issue third-quarter guidance next week, and Commercial Metals Company CMC approaching its fiscal fourth-quarter report in October, JP Morgan highlights persistent pricing pressure and ongoing industry uncertainty in its latest mid-quarter update on the sector.\nHot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices have fallen 6% quarter-to-date, while scrap prices have held steady but not enough to ease margin pressures. \nAlso Read: US Increases Steel, Aluminum Tariffs On Over 400 Products Including EV Parts, Wind Turbines, Railcars\nMills have captured market share from imports, aided by structural improvements in metal spreads compared with pre-pandemic and 2024 averages. \nUtilization rates have climbed above 79%, supported by a sharp decline in imports, down 16% month-over-month and 21% year-over-year in August, and a 2 million-ton increase in domestic shipments this year. \nYet real demand remains tepid, and inventories appear adequate, reinforcing a cautious approach from buyers still working down stock.\nJP Morgan expects this backdrop of uncertain pricing, range-bound trading, and weak demand to extend through the fourth quarter. \nFall outages are smaller than last year, while rising production adds further headwinds. The path to stronger growth, the firm notes, may depend on multiple rate cuts and greater clarity on trade policy with Mexico and Canada, factors unlikely to emerge in the near term.\nInvestor sentiment mirrors the muted outlook. Despite a 7% quarter-to-date rise in rebar prices, which helped lift CMC shares 21%, upside looks limited heading into the slower winter period. \nJP Morgan continues to favor companies with diversified earnings. The firm has issued Neutral ratings with a price forecast of $150 for Steel Dynamics, $10 for Cleveland-Cliffs CLF, and $54 for Commercial Metals Company. Nucor carries an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $165, while Reliance Steel & Aluminum also holds an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $350.\nFor the third quarter, the firm models earnings declines of 4% for Nucor and 6% for Steel Dynamics versus Bloomberg consensus, citing weaker pricing and shipment risk. \nNucor's results are expected to remain resilient, with softer Brazilian pig iron tariffs offsetting pressure on plate pricing. Steel Dynamics faces lingering coated inventory and ongoing losses at its aluminum rolling mill (ADI). \nWhile management points to a \"step function\" profitability improvement in the second half, investors remain wary until evidence materializes.\nDespite ongoing price erosion, North American steel stocks have climbed 17% this quarter, outpacing the S&P 500's 6% gain though trailing the metals and mining index's 28%.\nSince July 1, steel equities have re-rated 6% higher, seemingly on expectations of rate cuts or a stronger pricing environment, a view at odds with quarter-to-date price declines and the historical pattern in which rate cuts precede non-residential construction spending, roughly half of steel demand, by 18 to 24 months.\nCleveland-Cliffs has led the group with an 18% re-rating, followed by Commercial Metals at 12%, the latter lifted by stronger earnings expectations tied to rebar's recent gains. In contrast, Cleveland-Cliffs' 2025 EBITDA forecasts have been cut by 27%, yet its shares have continued to climb.\nValuations reflect this tension. Nucor and Steel Dynamics trade at an 8.0x EV/EBITDA 2026 premium on tariff support, while Cleveland-Cliffs sits at 6.5x, pressured by debt and limited diversification. \nCMC's 6.5x target multiple modestly exceeds its historical average, supported by end-of-capex positioning and new profitability initiatives, though capacity additions and trade risks weigh on sentiment.\nUltimately, JP Morgan sees a subdued outlook for North American steel, with limited catalysts and wide divergence in expectations. \nThe firm argues that companies with operational flexibility, diversified product lines, and disciplined capital allocation, notably Nucor and Reliance, remain best positioned to withstand market headwinds.\nRead Next: \nPhoto via Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2567906673","isCrawlerRequest":true}