Can the Gold rally continue?

LiveWire10-09

After handily outpacing the S&P 500 and broader markets over the past two years, it’s natural for even the staunchest gold believers to wonder how much fuel is left in the rally. Some argue that the ...

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Some argue that the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/can-the-gold-rally-continue\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"livewire_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Gold rally continue?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Gold rally continue?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-09 14:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/can-the-gold-rally-continue><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After handily outpacing the S&P 500 and broader markets over the past two years, it’s natural for even the staunchest gold believers to wonder how much fuel is left in the rally. Some argue that the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/can-the-gold-rally-continue\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GOLD.AU","symbol_name":"ETFS Physical Gold","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/can-the-gold-rally-continue","article_id":"2574182453","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/can-the-gold-rally-continue","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2574182453","pubTimestamp":1759991362,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"After handily outpacing the S&P 500 and broader markets over the past two years, it’s natural for even the staunchest gold believers to wonder how much fuel is left in the rally. Some argue that the past 24 months of exceptional gains were the product of a rare alignment of tailwinds that’s unlikely to recur. Others maintain that gold is still in the early stages of a secular bull market with far greater heights ahead. As is often the case, the truth likely rests somewhere between these extremes.We believe that at current levels, gold still has the potential to deliver attractive returns though likely at a steadier pace than in recent years. While several catalysts are now likely fully reflected in the price, new tailwinds, including a renewed buyer base and a weakening US dollar, provide the path for continued upside.For years, physical gold ETFs in Asia remained a niche product, attracting just US$4.3 billion of net inflows in the decade prior to 2022. But that chan","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GOLD.AU":"ETFS Physical Gold","BK4017":"黄金","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD","GHLD.AU":"Global X Gold Bullion Currency Hedged ETF","LU0496367417.USD":"富兰克林黄金和贵金属A（acc）","GXLD.AU":"Global X Gold Bullion ETF","BK4229":"商业和住宅抵押贷款融资","LU0724618789.USD":"BGF WORLD GOLD \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1223083913.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Gold A Acc SGD-H","SG9999001143.SGD":"United Gold and General A Acc SGD","LU0055631609.USD":"贝莱德世界黄金基金A2","LU1223082196.USD":"施罗德环球黄金A Acc","BK4195":"互助储蓄与抵押信贷金融服务","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0075056555.USD":"贝莱德世界矿业基金A2","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1023059493.AUD":"Blackrock World Mining A2 AUD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","GOLD":"Gold.com","LU0368265764.SGD":"Blackrock World Gold Fund A2 SGD-H","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","LU0345780521.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0498741114.HKD":"FRANKLIN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","LU0330918003.SGD":"Blackrock World Mining A2 SGD-H","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","LU0345781412.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","LU0345780281.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\"  ACC","BK7054":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0630314457.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GHLD":"Guild Holdings Company","LU0788108826.HKD":"BGF WORLD GOLD \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC"},"translate_title":"黄金涨势能否延续？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GXLD.AU":1,"XAO.AU":0.9,"GOLD":1,"GOLD.AU":1,"XKO.AU":0.9,"GHLD":1,"GHLD.AU":1,"FDN":0.9,"XJO.AU":0.9},"content_text":"After handily outpacing the S&P 500 and broader markets over the past two years, it’s natural for even the staunchest gold believers to wonder how much fuel is left in the rally. Some argue that the past 24 months of exceptional gains were the product of a rare alignment of tailwinds that’s unlikely to recur. Others maintain that gold is still in the early stages of a secular bull market with far greater heights ahead. As is often the case, the truth likely rests somewhere between these extremes.\nWe believe that at current levels, gold still has the potential to deliver attractive returns though likely at a steadier pace than in recent years. While several catalysts are now likely fully reflected in the price, new tailwinds, including a renewed buyer base and a weakening US dollar, provide the path for continued upside.\nKey Takeaways\n\nNew entrants to the gold market – namely Chinese ETF investors and central banks – were key drivers of gold’s outperformance between 2023 and early 2025, while traditional price catalysts played a secondary role.\nAs the US Federal Reserve resumes its rate-cutting cycle, classic gold price drivers are set to re-emerge, with Western ETF investors returning to support higher prices.\nIn the backdrop of a weakening USD and strengthening AUD, hedging gold exposure could provide meaningful performance benefits for investors.\n\nThe Story So Far: A Different Type of Rally\nBefore we dive into the reasons why gold may head toward a strong finish in 2025, it is important to contextualise the rally we have observed over the past few years. That’s because gold’s rally over the past three years has been a unique one, driven by non-traditional market participants and fresh catalysts.\nCentral banks, for example, once largely passive “price takers” in the gold market with minimal influence, have emerged as a dominant market force. Prior to 2022, global reserve banks consistently and passively accumulated around 500 tonnes of gold annually. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US’s confiscation of US$300 billion in Russian assets, however, they have more than doubled their hedging activity – buying over 1,000 tonnes of gold a year, worth roughly US$133 billion at today’s prices(1). Analysts predict that 2025 will mark the fourth straight year of central bank buying at this extraordinary pace.(2) Indeed, what was once a quiet, background flow of demand has become a decisive driver of price formation, widely seen as laying a structural floor beneath gold.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIn the ETF space, a whole new cohort of investors has stepped forward to reshape market dynamics. Asian investors – historically absent from the centre of gold price formation – have emerged as pivotal players, with their growing allocations tilting the balance of influence away from traditional Western buyers.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFor years, physical gold ETFs in Asia remained a niche product, attracting just US$4.3 billion of net inflows in the decade prior to 2022. But that changed abruptly as investors, faced with a narrow menu of alternatives, embraced gold as a core portfolio anchor. Since January 2023, these vehicles have absorbed more than US$18 billion, a wave of demand that has not only altered the geography of ownership but also helped drive prices higher by fundamentally reshaping how the gold market is valued.\nSo, to describe the rally thus far: once passive participants have become aggressive accumulators, while investors in the world’s second-largest economy have stepped in as active buyers. Together, these new forces have reshaped market dynamics and redefined gold’s “fair value,” driving prices to record highs. From here, the opportunity shifts back to gold’s traditional roots, with classic catalysts once again poised to power the next leg higher.\nLooking Forward: A Return to Fundamentals\nGold’s rally in recent years has unfolded not because of its traditional drivers, but in spite of them. Now that those forces are swinging back into play, we believe the rally still has plenty of room to run. We see three familiar drivers powering gold’s climb for the rest of 2025 and beyond:\n1. The Fed’s rate cut cycle, which resumed in September, provide fundamental tailwind and catalyst for ETF flows.\nLower interest rates are a well-established and fundamental tailwind for gold prices. The reasoning is simple – gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning investors contend with significant opportunity cost when risk-free interest rates are high. A reduction in US interest rates and subsequently US treasury bond yields (often quoted as the risk-free rate of the world), makes gold more attractive as opportunity cost falls.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe effect is well studied and statistically robust, with historical regression over the past 20 years (2003-2023) showing that every 1% fall in real yields correlates roughly with a $400 increase in gold price.(3) The relationship had weakened between 2023-2025, initially confusing investors, but with hindsight and the context provided (i.e. central banks, Asian ETF investors), it makes sense how gold was able to defy higher rates and still outperform. Now, as the US Fed reinitiates its rate cut cycle, we expect the traditionally inverse relationship between interest rates and gold price to resume. Further, Western investors, who have long relied on Fed rate cuts as a signal to buy gold may look to return to the market after multiple years of absence and provide a powerful tailwind for the next leg higher.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n2. A weaker US dollar, driven by lower rates, concerns over Fed independence, and US policy risks.\nIf lower interest rates are the fuel for gold’s strength, then a weakening US dollar – shaken by volatile policy and questions over Fed independence – may be the spark that ignites it. Like yields, the dollar has a long-running inverse relationship with gold: lower rates weaken the currency, while a softer dollar makes gold cheaper for the vast base of emerging-market buyers who drive demand.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAt the same time, talk of de-dollarisation has resurfaced. Central banks are not alone in questioning America’s newfound policy aggression – private investors, too, have begun shifting from US equities and bonds into cheaper or more politically neutral assets, with gold a clear beneficiary.(4) Whether the “sell America” trend endures remains to be seen, but the possibility alone represents a compelling tailwind for gold through the rest of 2025 and beyond.\n3. Gold remains the most optimal hedge amid elevated economic risks.\nAs inflation and growth concerns remain front of mind for global investors, gold’s relevance in portfolios continues to stand out. Historically, gold has proven to be one of the most effective hedges against periods of economic slowdown, showing low to negative correlation with equities during sustained market sell-offs.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAs an inflation hedge, gold is also a rarity amongst commodities in that it outperforms in most instances of rapid rises of US headline CPI.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThese allocation tailwinds come at a time when equity valuations sit near record highs and yields remain subdued, leaving risk-averse investors with few appealing options. The result is a further structural boost for gold, as tail-risk hedging once again takes centre stage.\nWhat About Currency Hedging\nWith so much discourse around the weakening US dollar, as well as deep rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve, investors with significant exposure to gold may wonder if the time is right for currency hedging.\nWhile non-currency hedged gold exposure has undoubtedly been the better investment over the long run, there is evidence that Australian investors, in particular, may benefit from currency hedging tactically.(5) Historical analysis shows that the correlation between the Australian dollar (in context of the AUDUSD pair) and gold prices is mildly positive, with the average correlation sitting at 0.26 over the past 25 years.(6) Stronger gold bull markets (i.e. 10-30% annual returns) also tend to coincide with periods of AUD appreciation against the US dollar, meaning currency-hedged investors can outperform during these rallies.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHowever, when markets turn turbulent and risk aversion takes over, both gold and the US dollar tend to surge as investors seek safety, while the Australian dollar usually falls. In those moments, unhedged exposures shine, as the weaker AUD amplifies gold’s defensive qualities. This interplay between currencies and crises that makes hedging decisions less about long-term averages, and more about timing and context.\nLooking ahead, near-term tailwinds such as Australia’s strengthening trade balance (in part thanks to gold exports) and the RBA’s relatively shallow rate cut path point to continued strength for the Australian dollar.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHowever, long-term investors weighing currency-hedged versus unhedged gold exposure must ultimately balance two competing scenarios: the risk of macroeconomic or policy shocks versus the likelihood of a sustained “goldilocks” phase of growth and normalisation. The former typically favours unhedged exposure, as gold and the US dollar tend to strengthen together during periods of stress, while the latter generally supports a hedged approach as risk appetite and the Australian dollar recover.\nFor those who believe the era of US dollar dominance is fading, however, maintaining a long-term hedged exposure may also serve as a strategic expression of that view.\nConclusion: Gold’s Rally Could Have Further To Run\nGold’s performance over the past few years has been extraordinary, but its story is far from over. With interest rates entering a clear downward trajectory, the US dollar losing some of its shine, and structural demand from central banks and Asian investors anchoring prices, the metal remains supported by both cyclical and long-term forces.\nWhile gains ahead may be to be steadier than in previous years, gold continues to offer one of the few credible hedges against macro uncertainty and market volatility. For investors seeking stability amid an uneven global outlook, gold’s role as a key portfolio asset looks as relevant as ever.\n\n\n\nETF\nGlobal X Physical Gold (GOLD)\nAlternative Assets\n\n\nView\n\n\n\n\n\n\nETF\nGlobal X Gold Bullion ETF (GXLD)\nAlternative Assets\n\n\nView\n\n\n\n\n\n\nETF\nGlobal X Gold Bullion (Currency Hedged) ETF (GHLD)\nAlternative Assets\n\n\nView\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? 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