OpenAI联手博通，AI芯片布局引发分歧

金十数据2025-10-15

OpenAI似乎押注通过更低成本和更高能效击败英伟达(NVDA.O)和AMD(AMD.O)——但一位分析师指出，市场对此的预期可能被夸大了，他还预警称人工智能领域或将迎来修正周期。OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）正在整个芯片行业中寻找计算力合作伙伴，以推动其AI雄心。又一家芯片巨头加入OpenAI的阵营，助力其获取更强大的计算力。虽然投资者对这笔交易反应热烈，但有分析师...

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Windsor）表示，OpenAI似乎正试图打造内部系统，以击败英伟达和AMD的AI解决方案。他说：“考虑到OpenAI在芯片设计方面毫无经验，这无疑是一场大胆的赌博。”此次与博通的合作，是继OpenAI与AMD和英伟达达成多吉瓦部署协议之后的又一战略扩展。博通专长于ASIC（应用特定集成电路），这种芯片专为特定任务设计，正面竞争于英伟达和AMD的GPU。温莎指出：“OpenAI和博通正在下注，他们相信自己能在每美元投资和每瓦能耗所产生的‘Token’（AI生成单位）方面，超越英伟达和AMD的设计与执行能力。”如果未来几年AI使用量真的要大幅增长，“效率将成为决定性因素”，温莎强调，OpenAI的定制芯片在这方面必须“表现非常出色”。总体来看，温莎认为：“英伟达目前仍是绝对的王者”——不仅拥有最先进的芯片设计，还领先一代，且具备“高度定制化的通信系统”和完善的数据中心软件支持。不过，OpenAI若能与博通共同优化系统以适配自家AI模型，也可能实现超越。这是英伟达和AMD的通用系统难以做到的。但归根结底，关键在于：OpenAI与博通合作系统，是否能在单位成本和功耗下生成更多的Token。温莎表示：“我怀疑市场对此的预期已经被严重高估了，毕竟我们显然还没有走在通向‘超级智能机器’的道路上，这意味着未来的需求将更多取决于实用性和投资回报，而不是是否具备‘取代人类’所需的计算能力。”温莎指出，OpenAI目前已与英伟达、AMD和博通达成共计26吉瓦的部署协议，远远超过其目前运行ChatGPT所用的2吉瓦能力。但由于未来几代芯片会更加高效，他质疑OpenAI是否真的需要如此庞大的计算力。他补充称，这些协议是以“框架订单”形式达成的，即功率与价格已经预先锁定，只会在真正需要时才实际部署。因此，温莎预计：OpenAI与博通系统的部署将依据实际需求慢慢推进，而非一味扩张以刺激需求。他承认，这种“先建设、再等待需求”的模式曾在互联网泡沫时期出现过，最终互联网确实改变了世界，但他认为AI的应用“将花费比预期更长的时间才能兑现价值”，投资者可能因此不满意回报。“这场修正将对那些没有现金流的公司打击最重，”温莎总结道，“我预计大多数大型语言模型公司最终将被收购。”与此同时，瑞穗证券（Mizuho）的分析师则持更乐观态度。他们在本周一的报告中表示，OpenAI与博通的合作“超出预期”，因此他们上调了博通股票的目标价，从410美元调高至430美元。分析师认为，这项为OpenAI定制芯片的合作将在多年内为博通带来1,500亿至2,000亿美元的营收机遇。瑞穗团队还表示，该交易可能进一步提升博通在AI领域的收入预期。他们将博通2027财年的营收预测从600亿美元上调至645亿美元，将2028财年预测从750亿美元上调至780亿美元。这两个预测均高于华尔街对这两年分别为575亿美元和624亿美元的共识预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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