A Rare Holiday Spending Boom Is Coming—But Only For The Wealthy

Benzinga_recent_news10-17

This year's holiday season may deliver the strongest sales growth in four years, but it won't be a broad recovery—wealthy households are expected to drive nearly all of the gains. According to Oxford ...

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The last time real sales volume saw a comparable increase was in 2021.\"We expect this holiday shopping season to be the strongest in four years, but it will be disproportionately driven by older, wealthier households,\" Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note this week.Wealthier Americans—especially those in the top 20% of income earners—are disproportionately driving this year's holiday rebound.As of the second quarter of 2025, households' equity holdings were 2.5 times their incomes, an all-time high, and now surpass real estate as the dominant component of household net wort","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","RL":"拉夫劳伦","WSM":"Williams-Sonoma Inc","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","VFC":"威富集团","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00B1G9WX41.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US REAL ESTATE SECURITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0154245756.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US MID CAP \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU0154245673.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US MID CAP \"C\" (USD) INC","LU2720916845.USD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","AXP":"美国运通","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","BK4166":"消费信贷","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00B95QR487.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US REAL ESTATE SECURITIES \"A\" (USD) INC A","PVH":"PVH Corp","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","BK4566":"资本集团","HLT":"希尔顿酒店","LU1670710661.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","MAR":"万豪酒店","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1670711123.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0054578231.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SMALLCAP \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B45NX917.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Real Estate Securities A Acc SGD-H"},"translate_title":"罕见的假日消费热潮即将到来——但仅限于富人","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WSM":1,"AXP":1,"TPR":1,"RCL":1,"RL":1,"PVH":1,"MAR":1,"VFC":1,"HLT":1},"content_text":"This year's holiday season may deliver the strongest sales growth in four years, but it won't be a broad recovery—wealthy households are expected to drive nearly all of the gains.\nAccording to Oxford Economics, holiday retail sales—excluding autos, gas, bars and restaurants—are expected to rise 4.6% in nominal terms and 1.6% in inflation-adjusted volume over the 2024 season. The last time real sales volume saw a comparable increase was in 2021. \n\"We expect this holiday shopping season to be the strongest in four years, but it will be disproportionately driven by older, wealthier households,\" Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note this week.\nWealthier Americans—especially those in the top 20% of income earners—are disproportionately driving this year's holiday rebound. \nAs of the second quarter of 2025, households' equity holdings were 2.5 times their incomes, an all-time high, and now surpass real estate as the dominant component of household net worth. \nThat's crucial because the recent stock market surge has translated directly into higher discretionary spending.\n“Stock market wealth is much higher than it was at previous peaks, such as during the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis, or the onset of the pandemic,” Pearce said.\nRead also: The Economy Is In A ‘K Shape’ — Here’s What That Means For Your Money\nWhile affluent households keep spending, lower-income consumers are struggling. Real disposable income is projected to grow just 1.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 2.4% last year. Tariffs have added 0.4% to inflation, and prices for electronics, furniture, and recreational goods are up as much as 5%.\nAt the same time, credit card lending is tightening, and many lower-income households are maxed out, limiting their ability to borrow for holiday purchases.\nOxford notes that online sales will lead, rising 8.7% year-over-year, while in-store sales will lag at 3%. Consumers also started holiday shopping earlier this year, partly to avoid tariff-driven price hikes and capture early promotions.\nOne wildcard this year is the impact of tariffs on shopping behavior.\n Online search trends for \"Christmas shopping\" spiked earlier than usual, which Oxford Economics said could signal some front-loading of purchases into October.\n“Consumers began gift searches early this year to preempt tariff impacts, reinforcing the trend of spending throughout the holiday season due to early promotions and extended discount periods,” Oxford Economics wrote. \nIf the holiday season unfolds as Oxford predicts, the following stocks—each catering to affluent demographics or luxury markets—may be positioned to benefit:\nAmerican Express Co. (NYSE:AXP)High-income consumers lean on Amex for premium travel and luxury purchases. AXP sees spending volume rise alongside stock market gains and travel rebounds.\nRead also: American Express Lifts 2025 Outlook After Double-Digit Revenue Growth, Strong Consumer Spending\nLululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU)Affluent millennials and Gen X continue to spend on premium activewear. Lululemon remains a strong play on both wellness trends and gift giving.\nRalph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL)Classic luxury apparel brand with strong resonance among older, high-income shoppers, especially during the holiday gifting season.\nTapestry Inc. (NYSE:TPR)Owner of Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman—brands with loyal upscale customer bases. Attractive pricing and luxury-lite positioning may draw in deal-conscious but brand-oriented consumers.\nPVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH)Operates Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. Premium apparel that still commands brand equity among fashion-forward, wealthier consumers.\nV.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC)Parent company of The North Face and Vans. While Vans is youth-driven, The North Face appeals to upper-income households shopping for outdoor gear during the holidays.\nRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL)Upscale cruise travel continues to rebound among older, wealthy travelers—those most likely to gift or plan vacations around the holidays.\nMarriott International Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR)With premium properties and loyalty programs, Marriott stands to benefit from continued high-end leisure and business travel.\nHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT)Another key player in luxury and upscale travel. Expect bookings and gift card sales to reflect affluent consumer activity.\nWilliams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE:WSM)Luxury home goods and kitchenware retailer. High-income households often spend more on gifting high-quality home products—especially during the holiday season.\nRead now:\nPhoto: Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.10","shortVersion":"4.35.10","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2576523940","isCrawlerRequest":true}