21对话｜斯蒂芬·罗奇拉响警报：美股AI泡沫远超互联网泡沫

21财经10-24

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭、实习生陈颖上海、北京报道10月23日，美国耶鲁大学高级研究员、前摩根士丹利亚洲区主席斯蒂芬·罗奇（Stephen S. Roach）在2025外滩年会上向21世纪经济报道记者指出，虽然人工智能（AI）拥有真正的革命性潜力，但当前美国股市在AI驱动下的估值上涨，正显现出明显的泡沫风险。罗奇称，他毫不怀疑人工智能具备真正变革的潜力——它可能重塑经济活动、就业结构...

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Roach）在2025外滩年会上向21世纪经济报道记者指出，虽然人工智能（AI）拥有真正的革命性潜力，但当前美国股市在AI驱动下的估值上涨，正显现出明显的泡沫风险。罗奇称，他毫不怀疑人工智能具备真正变革的潜力——它可能重塑经济活动、就业结构，以及机器主导的智力资本增长，投资者也正积极抢占这场变革先机。但问题在于，这些影响并非立即显现。他指出，当前，在美国主要股指上涨中，估值的飙升高度集中于美股“七巨头”及更广泛的AI相关板块，其在标普500市值的占比已经达到30%至35%。而在2000年互联网泡沫高峰时期，科技股当时约占同指数市值的6%。这一比例差距令他认为，“押注”规模反而更大。他提醒投资者与政策制定者务必警惕几大典型泡沫特征：股价出现陡峭、近乎垂直的猛涨；在宽泛市场指数中，估值失衡地集中于少数“热门”股票；投资者行为越来越偏向“价格会继续上涨，所以买入然后再高价卖出”，而非基于公司基本面逻辑。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2577551647","isCrawlerRequest":true}