Winnebago Industries (WGO) posted solid fiscal Q4 results and fiscal 2026 guidance, however, its near-term upside looks limited after the sharp rally, KeyBanc Capital Markets said in a note Wednesday.
The analysts said that given the macro backdrop and uncertainty around the consumer, with the company's stock now trading at about 18 times expected fiscal 2026 earnings after jumping 29% in a single day, its near-term upside looks limited after the sharp rally. "In general, we remain nimble within leisure vehicles and will monitor trends closely," the analysts noted.
For fiscal Q4, Winnebago's earnings per share and revenue topped expectations, the analysts said, adding that the growth was driven by stronger results in the Motorized and Marine segments, while Towables lagged consensus but still performed better than the firm's projections.
Looking ahead, management expects fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS between $2 and $2.70, compared with the prior consensus estimate of about $2.28. That represents a roughly 41% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Revenue guidance was set between $2.75 billion and $2.95 billion, in line with market expectations. "All in, while the beat was expected, in our view, WGO's adjusted EPS guidance was better than expected," the analysts said.
The analysts added that they are keeping their fiscal 2026 earnings estimate at $2.30 per share, reflecting better margins and modest revenue growth. They are also introducing a new fiscal 2027 earnings estimate of $2.75 per share.
KeyBanc downgraded Winnebago Industries to sector weight from overweight and removed its $34 price target.
Price: 38.47, Change: -2.17, Percent Change: -5.34
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