Simply Good Foods' (SMPL) all-time-low valuation following its Q4 earnings report is compelling, but the stock is constrained near term in the face of limited positive catalysts and ongoing scanner volatility, Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday.
Management's assumptions that innovation, moderating input costs, and regained shelf presence will lead to H2 recovery are not unreasonable, the brokerage said, adding it remained cautious due to scanner volatility and mixed brand-level signals.
"The near-term catalyst path remains limited, and we expect the market to stay increasingly focused on weekly scanner data trends, which are likely to remain choppy," the note said.
The brokerage now expects Simply Good Foods to post 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.92, down from the previous $2.00 estimate, and 2027 adjusted EPS of $2.08, down from $2.23 previously.
Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $24 from $28, while keeping its equal-weight rating on the stock.
Price: 20.33, Change: +0.07, Percent Change: +0.35
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