Can Udemy’s (UDMY) Share Buybacks Offset Softer Revenue Guidance?

Simply Wall St.10-30

Udemy reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded profit expectations and delivered flat year-over-year revenue of US$195.7 million, while guiding fourth-quarter revenue to a range of US$191 million...

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During the same period, Udemy completed a share repurchase program, buying back 4.1 million shares for US$29.22 million, which may affect future earnings per share. Given Udemy's cautious revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter, we'll explore how signals of potential demand pressure may impact its investment outlook. AI is about to change healthcare. These 34 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.AdvertisementUdemy Investment Narrative RecapFor Udemy, the key long-term belief is that ongoing workforce upskilling and global demand for digital learning will continue to support enterprise subscription growth, even as the Consumer segment faces persistent challenges. The latest earnings report confirmed strong non-GAAP profitability and flat revenue performance, but a cautious revenue outlook for Q4 signals that short-term momentum may be affected by softening demand, particularly among small and mid-sized business customers, a risk that remains material for near-term results. Among recent developments, Udemy’s completion of a US$29.22 million share repurchase stands out, as it reduces outstanding shares and could positively influence earnings per share calculations moving forward. While this action may temporarily support underlying financial metrics, it does not address the ongoing headwinds in recurring revenue stability or customer churn, which continue to be the most important factors for sustained re-rating potential. Yet, for investors, the bigger issue to watch, despite moves to bolster earnings, is whether demand trends and renewal rates among SMBs will recover as the company pivots toward upmarket clients… Read the full narrative on Udemy (it's free!)Udemy's narrative projects $913.6 million revenue and $75.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.7% yearly revenue growth and a $105.7 million earnings increase from -$30.6 million today.Uncover how Udemy's forecasts yield a $10.17 fair value, a 59% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesUDMY Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025 Simply Wall St Community members provided four fair value estimates for Udemy ranging from US$6.02 to US$13.54 per share. Some see upside as Udemy builds subscription-based revenue, but ongoing churn among SMB customers could limit how quickly the business returns to steady growth.Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Udemy - why the stock might be worth 6% less than the current price!Build Your Own Udemy NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Udemy research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.Our free Udemy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Udemy's overall financial health at a glance.Seeking Other Investments?Markets shift fast. These stocks won't stay hidden for long. Get the list while it matters:Explore 28 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.Rare earth metals are an input to most high-tech devices, military and defence systems and electric vehicles. The global race is on to secure supply of these critical minerals. Beat the pack to uncover the 36 best rare earth metal stocks of the very few that mine this essential strategic resource.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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