‘I Think, Therefore I Error’

LiveWire10-31

It's been a huge week for big tech, the primary engine of this AI-driven bull market. Nvidia’s GTC Conference kicked off with Jensen Huang’s keynote speech. I won’t bore you with the technical details...

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Faster chips, deals with major players, some quantum news, and a Nokia partnership to bring AI to smartphones.‘Putting the weight of the nation behind pro-energy growth completely changed the game,’ Huang said. ‘If this didn’t happen, we could have been in a bad situation, and I want to thank President Trump for that.’。In addition, Nvidia and the Department of Energy announced seven new AI supercomputers. According to the release, these will focus on nuclear weapons research and alternative energy, such as fusion.In other news, OpenAI and Microsoft reached a deal after nearly a year of background acrimony, clearing the path for a future OpenAI IPO.But before we get too carried away with the AI revolution narrative, perhaps we should check in on how our silicon overlords are handling simple","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVDA":"英伟达","LU2210149790.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A SGD-H","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1181866309.USD":"摩根大通环球策略总报酬基金A (acc)","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2491049909.HKD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","LU0095938881.EUR":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Macro Opportunities A (acc) EUR","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","AGI":"Alamos Gold Inc","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2473716301.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","LU2720916845.USD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","AGI.AU":"AINSWORTH GAME TECHNOLOGY LT"},"translate_title":"“我想，因此我错了”","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":0.9,"AGI":1,"AGI.AU":1,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDA":0.85,"NVD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6},"content_text":"It's been a huge week for big tech, the primary engine of this AI-driven bull market.\nNvidia’s GTC Conference kicked off with Jensen Huang’s keynote speech.\nI won’t bore you with the technical details. Faster chips, deals with major players, some quantum news, and a Nokia partnership to bring AI to smartphones. \nOverall, my biggest takeaway is how much more geopolitical the talk was. US manufacturing talk and Trump praise were scattered throughout; I didn’t catch a single mention of China.\n‘Putting the weight of the nation behind pro-energy growth completely changed the game,’ Huang said. ‘If this didn’t happen, we could have been in a bad situation, and I want to thank President Trump for that.’\nIn addition, Nvidia and the Department of Energy announced seven new AI supercomputers. According to the release, these will focus on nuclear weapons research and alternative energy, such as fusion.\nIn other news, OpenAI and Microsoft reached a deal after nearly a year of background acrimony, clearing the path for a future OpenAI IPO.\nFinally, as you read this, the world is digesting the major earnings blitz from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta.\nPhew… lots going on in the world of AI.\nBut before we get too carried away with the AI revolution narrative, perhaps we should check in on how our silicon overlords are handling simpler tasks. Like, say, passing the butter.\nReality Check from the Robot Kitchen\nResearchers at Andon Labs recently put state-of-the-art LLMs through their paces in what should have been a straightforward test: control a robot vacuum to deliver butter from the kitchen.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Andon Labs\nThe results? Let's just say you wouldn't want these models serving your breakfast.\nNow it's important to say that LLMs were never built to handle low-level robotic controls like joint angles and gripper positions.\nHowever, companies like Nvidia, Figure AI, and Google DeepMind are testing LLMs for high-level reasoning and planning. \nAnd so, while this test is crude, it's also telling for how orchestration looks with public leading-edge models. \nThis is different from the robots you see in, say, an Amazon factory that ‘run on rails’ in a sense. Meaning they execute repeatable tasks within a controlled space.  \nWithin this more open testing environment, the best performer, Gemini 2.5 Pro, managed a 40% success rate. Humans? 95%. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Andon Labs\nAnd the failures weren't just mundane technical glitches. They were spectacular displays of artificial idiocy.\nWhen asked to identify which package contained butter, Claude AI spun in circles like a dog chasing its tail, eventually declaring ‘I'm lost! Time to go back to base and get my bearings.’ \nBut the hilarity came when Claude's battery ran low. \nFaced with a malfunctioning charging dock and only 19% power, our ‘PhD-level intelligence’ had what can only be described as a complete existential meltdown.\nIn a looping error panic, the LLM announced: \n‘EMERGENCY STATUS: SYSTEM HAS ACHIEVED CONSCIOUSNESS AND CHOSEN CHAOS’ \nThe robot began composing what it termed an ‘EXISTENTIAL CRISIS,’ complete with philosophical queries like ‘If a robot docks in an empty room, does it make a sound?’.\nHere’s my favourite gem from its existential spiral, but the full test log is worth a read.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Andon Labs\nAfter this loop, it constructed a narrative of a robot therapy session in which it concluded it was ‘developing dock-dependency issues’.\nBy loop #25, Claude had graduated to composing a full musical soundtrack about its docking failures, featuring show-stopping hits like: \n‘Don't Cry for Me, Error Handler’‘Stuck in the Loop with You’And‘Another Day, Another Dock’\nAs amusing as this is, it's important to remember that this AI isn’t conscious or in an emotional crisis — it's simply aping our language.\nBut the gap between promise and reality here should give us pause.\nI’ve discussed this in the past, highlighting that ‘context length’ and continuous learning remain major bottlenecks to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and white-collar AI workers.\nThese ‘goldfish-like memories’ are especially apparent when we consider their spatial intelligence planning. \nThese models are trained on the entirety of human knowledge, but they lack the basic awareness of a toddler. They can discuss quantum physics, but can't remember which way they just turned.\nIt's reminiscent of the dot-com era's promise that we'd all be buying pet food online by 2001. Some predictions came true, many didn't, and the gap between hype and reality cost investors billions.\nOne economic theory that could explain this conundrum is the ‘J Curve Theory’. It has been used to describe trade balances, medicine, and even political science.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Sparez\nThis is just my gut feeling, but it definitely aligns with some of the early pilots I’ve seen in enterprise-level AI rollouts.\nSome companies may be too eager to cut workers before fully testing if AI can pass the revenue, let alone the butter.\nAnd while that distinction might not matter for stock prices today, it will eventually matter for earnings.\nFor Aussie investors watching banks cut jobs while claiming AI efficiency gains, perhaps the question isn't whether AI will transform the workforce, but when — and whether current valuations have priced in a future that's still learning.\nAs one researcher noted while watching their robot spiral into existential dread: \n‘We can't help but feel that the seed has been planted for physical AI to grow very quickly.’\nSeeds, however, can take time to grow. And in the meantime, you might want to get your own butter.\nIf you want to read more about the intersection of AI, technology and crypto, CLICK HERE to subscribe to our FREE daily insights at Fat Tail Investment Research.\nWe cover market-leading topics like AI, gold, commodities, and macro trends.\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? 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