Why Meritage Homes (MTH) Is Down 7.9% After Reporting Lower Q3 Profits and New Buyback Milestone

Simply Wall St.11-04

On October 28, 2025, Meritage Homes Corporation reported third quarter results showing year-over-year decreases in net income and earnings per share, provided fourth quarter 2025 diluted EPS guidance ...

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An important insight is the company's completion of buybacks totaling over 6.65 million shares, removing more than 9% of total shares outstanding since 2019, reflecting a robust capital return strategy amid changing profitability. With new fourth quarter earnings guidance, we'll examine how recent profit declines and continued buybacks impact Meritage Homes' investment narrative. The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.AdvertisementMeritage Homes Investment Narrative RecapOwning Meritage Homes often means believing sustained demand for new homes will eventually offset near-term affordability pressures and stretched margins. The recent third quarter results, showing sharp annual declines in net income and EPS, reinforce that the biggest current risk is continued margin compression from persistent affordability challenges. Short-term earnings visibility remains limited, and the new fourth quarter EPS guidance, while constructive, does not significantly alter the central catalyst or main risk facing the business right now. Among the latest announcements, Meritage’s update on its buyback program stands out: the company has now repurchased over 6.65 million shares, or more than 9% of shares outstanding since 2019. Paired with lower earnings, this capital return effort may help support earnings per share in the face of margin and volume volatility, a key consideration as investors evaluate the possible timing of a demand recovery. However, with affordability risks still pressuring gross margins, investors should be aware that if buyer hesitation intensifies and incentives remain high, then … Read the full narrative on Meritage Homes (it's free!)Meritage Homes is projected to reach $7.1 billion in revenue and $549.0 million in earnings by 2028. This forecast assumes a 4.8% annual revenue growth rate but a $89.3 million decrease in earnings from the current earnings of $638.3 million.Uncover how Meritage Homes' forecasts yield a $83.88 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesMTH Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025 Fair value estimates for Meritage Homes from four Simply Wall St Community members range from as low as US$29.07 to as high as US$225 per share. With ongoing margin pressures highlighted in recent results, you can see how opinions may widely differ and why it is worth exploring several alternative viewpoints here.Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Meritage Homes - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!Build Your Own Meritage Homes NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Meritage Homes research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Meritage Homes research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Meritage Homes' overall financial health at a glance.Interested In Other Possibilities?Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:We've found 18 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.These 14 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.Rare earth metals are an input to most high-tech devices, military and defence systems and electric vehicles. The global race is on to secure supply of these critical minerals. Beat the pack to uncover the 38 best rare earth metal stocks of the very few that mine this essential strategic resource.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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