科技股与AI投资：泡沫还是新机遇？

金十数据11-03

随着股市接近历史最高点，科技巨头在人工智能上的大幅投入重新点燃了投资者之间的激烈争论：市场是否正在形成另一个泡沫？多头认为，过去两年推动市场上涨的科技公司股价反弹，仍有继续上涨的空间。空头则警告，科技股估值已过高，可能会像2000年代初的dot-com崩盘一样崩塌。“如果科技股出现下跌，市场无法避免严重的调整，甚至可能迎来熊市，”RosenbergResearch&Associates创始人兼总裁...

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Platforms(META.O)、谷歌(GOOGL.O)的财报结果既让一些投资者感到担忧，也让另一些人更加坚定。预计微软、亚马逊、Meta和谷歌今年将在AI相关支出上共同投资3500亿美元，并且它们都提高了资本支出指导。另一个影响股票走势的因素是美联储主席鲍威尔周三的讲话，他表示“美联储在12月会议上再度降息并非定局”。我们真的处在泡沫中吗？JanusHendersonInvestors的投资组合经理JeremiahBuckley表示，尽管股市估值较高，但它们得到了强大基本面的支撑。他指出，虽然成长股目前的估值溢价远高于价值股，但它们的盈利能力也在享受更高的溢价。LPL的Buchbinder表示，在与dot-com时代的对比中，目前的投资大多集中在那些有充足现金和已建立强大现金流的公司，而很少有资本流向那些缺乏强有力商业模型的公司，比如在dot-com热潮期间臭名昭著的Pets.com。Rosenberg，这位被称为“常年空头”且以成功预警2008年金融危机而闻名的人，不同意这一观点。“在1990年代末，问题不仅仅是Pets.com。那是一个广泛的科技泡沫，而且你当时有一些利润、现金流和真正商业模式的重量级公司，如微软、戴尔、英特尔、IBM和思科，”Rosenberg在电话采访中表示。“当熊市来临时，这些股票跌幅达到60%到80%，我们几乎有十年的时间都在熊市的‘惩罚框’里，”他补充道。两年滞后？Rosenberg认为，股市已经处于价格泡沫状态超过一年，估值在这一时期保持着过高水平。他指出，有几个迹象表明，估值已经脱离了基本面。首先，周期调整市盈率（即ShillerP/E），这一广泛关注的长期估值指标，在2024年夏季突破了历史平均值的两个标准差。“事实上，泡沫可以持续长达两年，”他说。此外，为了证明当前标准普尔500指数的估值是合理的，从现在到2030年，盈利必须每年增长15%，这几乎是历史常态的两倍，Rosenberg指出。“问题不在于AI是否会变革——我们知道它会，”他说。“但它真的会触发如此大的长期盈利偏差，导致利润在很长一段时间内翻倍吗？”“我认为，即使是AI和它可能带来的所有好处，这也是一项相当艰巨的任务，”Rosenberg补充道。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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