还在辩 AI 是不是泡沫？泡沫早已泄气 OpenAI 恐面临2种命运

经济日报11-02

投资人此刻最想问的是，人工智能（AI）究竟是不是泡沫，会不会爆？财经评论员认为，这根本问错问题，事实上，AI泡沫早已开始泄气了，只是不像当年达康泡沫那样猛烈爆开。财经评论员杜莫维奇表示，此刻AI泡沫确实存在，但独立研究机构MacroStrategy Partnership估计，AI泡沫比2000年爆掉的达康泡沫大17倍，绝对是误导人，那项分析衡量的是所有资产类别的总资本配置，并不是针对AI而已。更...

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The bubble has long been deflated, OpenAI may face two fates","themeId":"d968891b7e4d96887d7b1dcbdab42d88","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"META":0.9,"GOOGL":0.71,"AAPL":0.9,"AI":0.9},"content_text":"投资人此刻最想问的是，人工智能（AI）究竟是不是泡沫，会不会爆？财经评论员认为，这根本问错问题，事实上，AI泡沫早已开始泄气了，只是不像当年达康泡沫那样猛烈爆开。财经评论员杜莫维奇表示，此刻AI泡沫确实存在，但独立研究机构MacroStrategy Partnership估计，AI泡沫比2000年爆掉的达康泡沫大17倍，绝对是误导人，那项分析衡量的是所有资产类别的总资本配置，并不是针对AI而已。更重要的是，众人都问错问题。这场辩论不应是“AI泡沫会不会爆”--事实上早已发生，只是泡沫慢慢泄气，不像轰然大爆炸那般引人瞩目。然而，一连串慢动作泄气，正悄悄重塑整个AI市场生态。杜莫维奇指出，伤亡数字正日积月累。2024年，新创公司关门家数暴增；2025年，有95%的企业AI试验计划未能在推出六个月内，达成可评量的损益（P&L）目标；而且，今年来，募资失败率占所有创业投资交易比率达到15.9%，是十年来最高。但相较于2000年达康泡沫爆破，AI泡沫的威胁不是被夸大，就是被误解。AI泡沫并非达康泡沫翻版，反倒更有趣且获利前景更可观，但必须押对宝。杜莫维奇把AI投资标的分成下列三个等级，各自面临截然不同的命运：第一级：超大规模云端服务业者超大规模云端服务业者（hyperscalers）指的是：微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms和苹果（Apple）。基本上都很可靠，2025年合计资本支出据估计在3,200亿美元至3,400亿美元之谱，大致用于AI和云端基础设施，而且主要由核心事业产生的营业现金流支应。由于核心事业获利源源不断，就算AI投资报酬令人失望，这些大企业也可望安然度过。第二级：前景不明的独角兽这组新创公司包括OpenAI、Anthropic和Scale AI，已取得高额估值，但仍面临生存问题。他们能获致可观的投资报酬，足以匹配如今已高耸入云的估值吗？他们能与财力雄厚的超大规模业者竞争，同时战胜以平价模型异军突起的外国AI新创吗？未来18到24个月，将揭晓谁是赢家和输家。第三级：大量伤亡据估计，2025年倒闭的AI新创家数可能比2024年增加26%，募资失败率冲上十年高峰，交易笔数和创投公司开的支票金额都将缩小，企业也将作废一大部分的AI计划，且试验计划未能达到设定的投资报酬率（ROI）目标。综合评估，AI泡沫将缓缓泄气，而不是一场灾难性的爆炸。第一级的超大规模业者因为营收来源多元，可望安度AI报酬失望期；第二级的独角兽面临两种命运，不是估值遭压缩，就是被收购；第三级的业者将死伤惨重，仅少数能存活下来。AI泡沫正在泄气中，但留下的基础设施和掀起的自动化革命，仍会带来投资机会，前提是投资人必须明辨良莠--哪些是投机色彩强烈、只会烧钱的AI新创？哪些是获利前景亮丽的企业，有能力解决现实问题，并交出可衡量的投资报酬？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2580477164","isCrawlerRequest":true}