Does Mattel’s Stock Reflect Its Value After New Licensing Deals and Recent Price Swings?

Simply Wall St.11-06

Wondering if Mattel's share price truly reflects what the company is worth? You're not alone. Let's break down what might be driving its valuation right now. The stock is up 31.2% over five years, but...

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The stock is up 31.2% over five years, but...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-durables/nasdaq-mat/mattel/news/does-mattels-stock-reflect-its-value-after-new-licensing-dea\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does Mattel’s Stock Reflect Its Value After New Licensing Deals and Recent Price Swings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes Mattel’s Stock Reflect Its Value After New Licensing Deals and Recent Price Swings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-06 04:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-durables/nasdaq-mat/mattel/news/does-mattels-stock-reflect-its-value-after-new-licensing-dea><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wondering if Mattel's share price truly reflects what the company is worth? You're not alone. Let's break down what might be driving its valuation right now. The stock is up 31.2% over five years, but...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-durables/nasdaq-mat/mattel/news/does-mattels-stock-reflect-its-value-after-new-licensing-dea\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4190","symbol_name":"消闲用品","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-durables/nasdaq-mat/mattel/news/does-mattels-stock-reflect-its-value-after-new-licensing-dea","article_id":"2581088762","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/4121000-choice2-main-header/1585186962234"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-durables/nasdaq-mat/mattel/news/does-mattels-stock-reflect-its-value-after-new-licensing-dea","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2581088762","pubTimestamp":1762374959,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Wondering if Mattel's share price truly reflects what the company is worth? You're not alone. Let's break down what might be driving its valuation right now.\nThe stock is up 31.2% over five years, but it's been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. It dropped 4.7% in just the past week, even as it gained 1.5% over the last month.\nMattel has been making headlines with new licensing deals and some high-profile product launches. Both of these have investors and consumers talking, and these recent...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4190":"消闲用品","MAT":"美国美泰公司","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc"},"translate_title":"美泰的股票是否反映了新的许可协议和最近的价格波动后的价值？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"MAT":1.5},"content_text":"Wondering if Mattel's share price truly reflects what the company is worth? You're not alone. Let's break down what might be driving its valuation right now. The stock is up 31.2% over five years, but it's been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. It dropped 4.7% in just the past week, even as it gained 1.5% over the last month. Mattel has been making headlines with new licensing deals and some high-profile product launches. Both of these have investors and consumers talking, and these recent moves are adding fresh context to the short-term swings we're seeing in its share price. On our core valuation checks, Mattel earns a 6 out of 6. This suggests it may be undervalued on several fronts. We'll dig deeper into what this means using a few classic approaches, so stick around for a smarter way to interpret what all these numbers really tell us about Mattel.  Find out why Mattel's -9.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Mattel Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those cash flows back to today’s value. This approach helps investors get a clearer sense of what the business is fundamentally worth, independent of the stock market’s daily movements. For Mattel, the current Free Cash Flow stands at $477.9 million. Analysts provide cash flow estimates out to 2027, projecting Free Cash Flow to reach about $520 million by then. Beyond the next five years, further cash flow estimates are extended through 2035. By that time, projections anticipate annual Free Cash Flow just above $600 million, reflecting steady growth with conservative assumptions. Based on these forecasts, Mattel’s intrinsic value per share is calculated at $32.16. This indicates the stock is approximately 43.0% undervalued compared to its current trading price. This margin suggests a notable potential upside, assuming the company meets or exceeds these cash flow targets and market conditions remain stable. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Mattel is undervalued by 43.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 840 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows. MAT Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Mattel. Approach 2: Mattel Price vs Earnings The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is widely used to value profitable companies like Mattel, as it relates a company's share price to its earnings per share. This makes it a practical tool for investors to quickly gauge whether a company's stock is expensive or cheap relative to how much profit it actually generates. The appropriate PE ratio for a company depends on growth expectations and overall business risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risks usually justify a higher PE, while companies with slower growth or more risk tend to have lower ratios. In Mattel’s case, its current PE ratio is 13.2x. When compared to the Leisure industry average of 21.1x and a peer group average of 46.4x, Mattel trades at a notable discount. To dig deeper, Simply Wall St calculates a Fair Ratio, which is an expected PE that factors in Mattel’s unique profile, from growth outlook and profit margins to its market cap and the risks attached. This proprietary Fair Ratio is 15.0x for Mattel. Unlike broad industry or peer comparisons, the Fair Ratio provides a more tailored and realistic benchmark because it distills the most relevant elements affecting valuation for this specific company. With Mattel’s actual PE at 13.2x and its Fair Ratio at 15.0x, the numbers are close, suggesting the stock is priced about right in relation to its earnings potential and business fundamentals. Result: ABOUT RIGHT NasdaqGS:MAT PE Ratio as at Nov 2025 PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1411 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Mattel Narrative Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative connects the story you see in a company with your own view of its future numbers, such as fair value or projected earnings and revenue. It is an approach that empowers you to look beyond just ratios or analyst forecasts by capturing both your perspective and the market's data, linking Mattel's potential to a concrete financial forecast and a fair value estimate. Narratives are easy to use and available for millions of investors on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where you can quickly create or follow different viewpoints about Mattel. As the latest news or earnings get released, Narratives update automatically, ensuring your outlook stays relevant and informed. This tool helps you decide when to buy or sell by showing how your fair value compares with today's price, no matter your experience level. For example, some investors may forecast Mattel's fair value at the optimistic high end, while others see a more conservative, lower number, all based on the same updated facts. Narratives make it simple to see every angle and sharpen your decisions. Do you think there's more to the story for Mattel? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:MAT Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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