Tourmaline Oil Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q3 Results; Price Target at C$77.00

MT Newswires Live11-07

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO) with a C$77.00 price target after Canada's No.1 natural gas producer reported third-quarter results.

"Headline metrics screen slightly negative overall vs. consensus, though more in-line with TPHe. Q3 cash flow printed C$720MM, ~in-line with TPHe C$724MM but below Street C$764MM, which net of capex of C$825MM for E&P (middled TPHe/Street C$849MM/C$801MM), resulted in -C$105MM FCF vs. TPHe/Street-implied -C$125MM/-C$37MM; shareholder returns featured both the C$0.50/shr base and a C$0.25/shr special, lower q/q. On ops, ~635mboepd production beat TPHe/Street 629, with liquids 147mbopd in-line with TPHe/Street 146/147. Looking ahead, Q4 production guidance calls for 655-665mboepd (slightly below consensus 669), though the exit'25 rate was increased at the high end to 680-700mboepd (prior 680-690); FY'25 range was lowered to 637.5-640mboepd (consensus 640) as a result of prudent timing shifts in the capital program and shut-ins. No changes to FY'26 operational guidance, though TOU quantified that C$200-250MM of planned capex could be deferred in a low-price scenario," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 60.48, Change: -1.22, Percent Change: -1.98

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Q3 cash flow printed C$720MM, ~in-line with TPHe C$724MM but below Street C$764MM, which net of capex of C$825MM for E&amp;P (middled TPHe/Street C$849MM/C$801MM), resulted in -C$105MM FCF vs. TPHe/Street-implied -C$125MM/-C$37MM; shareholder returns featured both the C$0.50/shr base and a C$0.25/shr special, lower q/q. On ops, ~635mboepd production beat TPHe/Street 629, with liquids 147mbopd in-line with TPHe/Street 146/147. Looking ahead, Q4 production guidance calls for 655-665mboepd (slightly below consensus 669), though the exit'25 rate was increased at the high end to 680-700mboepd (prior 680-690); FY'25 range was lowered to 637.5-640mboepd (consensus 640) as a result of prudent timing shifts in the capital program and shut-ins. 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Q3 cash flow printed C$720MM, ~in-line with TPHe C$724MM but below Street C$764MM, which net of capex of C$825MM for E&P (middled TPHe/Street C$849MM/C$801MM), resulted in -C$105MM FCF vs. TPHe/Street-implied -C$125MM/-C$37MM; shareholder returns featured both the C$0.50/shr base and a C$0.25/shr special, lower q/q. On ops, ~635mboepd production beat TPHe/Street 629, with liquids 147mbopd in-line with TPHe/Street 146/147. Looking ahead, Q4 production guidance calls for 655-665mboepd (slightly below consensus 669), though the exit'25 rate was increased at the high end to 680-700mboepd (prior 680-690); FY'25 range was lowered to 637.5-640mboepd (consensus 640) as a result of prudent timing shifts in the capital program and shut-ins. 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