Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday maintained its hold rating on the shares of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO, CNQ) with a C$50.00 price target after the country's N0.1 oil producer reported third-quarter results.
"Positive on headline beats across Q3 results particularly on AFFO, but also on capex and production to a lesser degree. On Q3 AFFO, C$3.92B beat TPHe/Street C$3.59B/C$3.58B (C$1.87/shr vs. TPHe/Street C$1.70/C$1.67) by ~9.1%/~9.5%, respectively, with the delta vs. our model owing to a combination of production, realizations, and production costs, partially offset by transportation and blending expenses. Net of C$1.38B in capex ex-acquisitions (more notably better vs. consensus, comparing to TPHe/Street C$1.40B/C$1.46B) and the C$1.2B dividend, FCF supported $0.3B in buybacks (7.2MM shares at a wt'd avg. C$43.12/shr), putting total Q3'25 return of capital at $1.5B. On ops, 1,620mboepd average production beat TPHe/Street 1,597/1,606, with oil volumes of 1,175mboepd slightly ahead of TPHe/Street 1,167 comprising ~35% of the beat vs. our model. At the asset level on oil volumes, SCO (581mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 578/575) and NAM light oil and NGLs (180 vs. TPHe/Street 169/172) led as drivers of the beat," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.
(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)
Price: 44.56, Change: -0.45, Percent Change: -1.00
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