Assessing Novavax (NVAX) Valuation Following Q3 Revenue Beat and Expanded Sanofi Collaboration

Simply Wall St.11-10

Novavax (NVAX) made headlines this week after reporting Q3 revenue that surpassed expectations, finalizing the transfer of U.S. marketing rights for its COVID-19 vaccine to Sanofi, and securing fresh ...

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These moves are reshaping its outlook for investors.\nSee our latest analysis for Novavax.\nNovavax’s recent revenue beat and expanded collaborations with Sanofi have sparked renewed interest, but momentum has not carried through to the...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SNYNF":"Sanofi","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"translate_title":"在第三季度收入超出预期并扩大赛诺菲合作后评估Novavax(NVAX)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":1.5,"SNYNF":1.5},"content_text":"Novavax (NVAX) made headlines this week after reporting Q3 revenue that surpassed expectations, finalizing the transfer of U.S. marketing rights for its COVID-19 vaccine to Sanofi, and securing fresh milestone payments along with future royalty opportunities. These moves are reshaping its outlook for investors. See our latest analysis for Novavax. Novavax’s recent revenue beat and expanded collaborations with Sanofi have sparked renewed interest, but momentum has not carried through to the share price so far. The stock is down 13.2% year-to-date, while the one-year total shareholder return sits at -17.4%, and the five-year number at a sobering -91.8%. Despite ongoing commercial wins, the market appears to be waiting for clearer signs that the company’s growth story is back on track. If the flurry of biotech deals has you curious, now is the perfect moment to discover more health innovators. Explore the full range with our See the full list for free. With analyst price targets far above current levels and recent progress in partnerships and revenue, the real question for investors is whether Novavax is trading at a bargain or if the market has already priced in its future prospects. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 43.3% Undervalued According to the most widely followed narrative, Novavax’s fair value is estimated at $13.11 per share, far higher than its recent closing price of $7.44. This significant gap fuels debate among market watchers about whether Novavax’s pivot to partnerships and licensing is as transformative as the narrative suggests.  The global vaccine market is expected to increase significantly, driven by factors such as aging populations and emerging infectious diseases. This expansion broadens Novavax's addressable market and supports potential long-term revenue growth. Partnership with Sanofi has reduced commercial risk for Nuvaxovid and opened opportunities for future milestone and royalty streams. As Sanofi develops and commercializes COVID-influenza combination vaccines, Novavax could see a meaningful boost in recurring revenue and net margins.  Read the complete narrative. Why are analysts projecting such a bold trajectory? Unlock the playbook behind this valuation, packed with big profit expectations and shifts in business model. Discover what pivotal assumptions are driving this ambitious fair value and read on for the narrative’s key financial forecasts and triggers. Result: Fair Value of $13.11 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, Novavax’s future remains uncertain if key partners fail to deliver on milestones or if COVID-19 vaccine demand declines more quickly than expected. Find out about the key risks to this Novavax narrative. Another View: SWS DCF Model Suggests a Different Story While the analyst consensus sees Novavax as undervalued, our DCF model arrives at a very different conclusion. Based on projected cash flows, the SWS DCF model values Novavax shares at just $4.12, which is notably below the current price. This raises questions about whether forward-looking earnings and all downside risks have been fully accounted for. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. NVAX Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Novavax for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Novavax Narrative If you'd rather form your own insights or want to put the numbers to the test, you can craft a personal take in just minutes. Do it your way A great starting point for your Novavax research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for More Smart Investment Moves? Unlock more stock market opportunities and don’t let the next big winner slip away. Use these handpicked tools to power up your portfolio before prices move:  Pounce on untapped growth by checking out these 3585 penny stocks with strong financials showing strong financials and the potential for explosive returns. Supercharge your portfolio with these 25 AI penny stocks poised to lead innovation at the cutting edge of artificial intelligence and automation. Secure higher cash flows and stability by screening for these 16 dividend stocks with yields > 3% delivering substantial yields for income-focused investors.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Novavax might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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