Upstart (UPST): Examining Valuation Following Recent Share Price Declines

Simply Wall St.11-12

Upstart Holdings (UPST) is coming off a challenging stretch, with the stock down 20% over the past month and nearly 50% over the past year. Investors may be curious about what is driving these moves ...

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Investors may be curious about what is driving these moves ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-upst/upstart-holdings/news/upstart-upst-examining-valuation-following-recent-share-pric\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart (UPST): Examining Valuation Following Recent Share Price Declines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart (UPST): Examining Valuation Following Recent Share Price Declines\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-12 01:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-upst/upstart-holdings/news/upstart-upst-examining-valuation-following-recent-share-pric><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Upstart Holdings (UPST) is coming off a challenging stretch, with the stock down 20% over the past month and nearly 50% over the past year. Investors may be curious about what is driving these moves ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-upst/upstart-holdings/news/upstart-upst-examining-valuation-following-recent-share-pric\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-upst/upstart-holdings/news/upstart-upst-examining-valuation-following-recent-share-pric","article_id":"2582394306","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/7121000-choice1-main-header/1585186619635"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-upst/upstart-holdings/news/upstart-upst-examining-valuation-following-recent-share-pric","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582394306","pubTimestamp":1762882131,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Upstart Holdings (UPST) is coming off a challenging stretch, with the stock down 20% over the past month and nearly 50% over the past year. Investors may be curious about what is driving these moves and where the company stands now.\nSee our latest analysis for Upstart Holdings.\nUpstart Holdings’ share price has struggled for momentum lately, with a harsh 20% drop over the past month and nearly 50% lower total shareholder return over the past year. Although there have been solid three-year...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4166":"消费信贷"},"translate_title":"Upstart(UPST)：在近期股价下跌后审查估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"UPST":1.5},"content_text":"Upstart Holdings (UPST) is coming off a challenging stretch, with the stock down 20% over the past month and nearly 50% over the past year. Investors may be curious about what is driving these moves and where the company stands now. See our latest analysis for Upstart Holdings. Upstart Holdings’ share price has struggled for momentum lately, with a harsh 20% drop over the past month and nearly 50% lower total shareholder return over the past year. Although there have been solid three-year total shareholder returns, the recent declines indicate fading optimism and a more cautious outlook from investors as growth expectations are re-evaluated in a volatile market. If you’re watching market sentiment shift and want to see what other dynamic companies are generating buzz, now’s the perfect time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership With Upstart trading below analyst price targets despite posting solid three-year returns, the key question now is whether the recent sell-off presents a compelling value opportunity, or if the market has fairly accounted for future prospects. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 48% Undervalued Upstart Holdings’ prevailing narrative assigns a fair value to the stock that’s dramatically higher than the current price, highlighting a sharp disconnect in expectations. Investors following this narrative are presented with ambitious projections for growth, margins, and profitability that set the stage for strong upside potential if the numbers are realized.  The implementation of Model 19, featuring the Payment Transition Model (PTM), has improved underwriting accuracy, which is likely to enhance loan approval rates and reduce default risks, positively impacting revenue and net margins. Upstart's HELOC product growth, driven by conversion improvements, cross-selling, and state expansion, positions it well for future revenue growth and margins with the potential to leverage its strong relationships with banks and credit unions for cost-effective funding.  Read the complete narrative. What’s the secret behind this aggressive price target? It’s tied to a mix of transformative operating upgrades, big margin shifts, and confidence in long-term lending growth. Are these projections realistic or overly bold? Click to unlock the full valuation logic. Result: Fair Value of $74.69 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, persistent concerns about rising default rates and potential struggles to maintain model accuracy could quickly shake confidence in the current valuation thesis. Find out about the key risks to this Upstart Holdings narrative. Another View: Pricing Through Earnings Ratios While the fair value estimate suggests Upstart may be undervalued, the market's take on its price-to-earnings ratio tells a different story. At 117.1 times earnings, the company's valuation is far higher than both the industry average of 10.5 and the calculated fair ratio of 43. This significant premium suggests the market is pricing in major growth, but also leaves little margin for disappointment if results fall short. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGS:UPST PE Ratio as at Nov 2025 Build Your Own Upstart Holdings Narrative If you have a different outlook or want to dig deeper into Upstart Holdings' numbers, you can easily create your own evidence-based narrative in just a few minutes as well. Do it your way A great starting point for your Upstart Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for More Investment Ideas? Don’t let great opportunities pass you by. Tap into new market trends and handpicked stock ideas in just a few minutes using Simply Wall Street’s powerful screener tools.  Grow your passive income by checking out these 16 dividend stocks with yields > 3% offering consistent yields above 3 percent and a track record of reliability. Ride the latest advancements in healthcare by exploring these 32 healthcare AI stocks powering next-generation diagnosis, treatment, and patient outcomes. Capitalize on breakthroughs in quantum computing by evaluating these 28 quantum computing stocks positioned to transform industries and deliver outsized returns.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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