Home Depot, Trex and the Art of Portfolio Construction -- WSJ

Dow Jones11-11

By Spencer Jakab

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The old saw about making money in real estate is that you should buy the ugliest house on a nice block. A smart strategy for buying stocks can be the inverse of that: Pick the strongest companies in a tough-looking sector.

One opportunity literally involves houses. Demand for the materials used to build and renovate homes is slumping, spooking investors in related industries.

There are some fine properties available for those with patience. Their shares aren't screaming bargains, but these five companies have management teams with a proven eye for shareholder returns.

One is Trex, the company that pioneered composite decking. Its stock price is down by more than half this year, having taken another dive after management expressed caution on last week's quarterly earnings call.

Renovations boomed following the pandemic, but many homeowners no longer feel financially comfortable enough to upgrade their outdoor entertaining spaces. Trex took advantage of the Covid-19 windfall, buying back nearly 8% of its stock since 2019 and investing in manufacturing, new products and distribution.

Trex's return on invested capital $(ROIC)$, a measure of how well a company creates value, has averaged more than 30% in the past five years, according to FactSet. The typical S&P 500 company is only around 9%, and even lower excluding the Magnificent Seven.

James Hardie, a supplier of high-end siding that recently expanded into decking with a big acquisition, is sagging almost as badly as Trex, down 44% this year. Management says homeowners have been deferring remodeling projects recently. Its homebuilder customers are sitting on the largest number of completed, unsold homes in several years.

The ones they're still deciding to start are often smaller to match buyers' budgets. Builders FirstSource, a distributor of construction materials praised for its financial discipline, has had to adapt to lower demand per new dwelling. Its shares are down 25% year-to-date, but it also has been an opportunistic buyer of its own stock. Its ROIC has averaged more than 21% over the past five years.

NVR, a homebuilder that has attracted a following among investors for its capital-light business model, might be another buried gem. Its 30% plus return on invested capital is more than twice that of many large rivals. It also has bought back shares steadily.

Finally, retail and wholesale supplier Home Depot stands out for its bottom-line focus. Its 33% average ROIC in the past five years is nearly twice what it was during the housing bubble. Shares outstanding have halved since 2007.

Lower mortgage rates haven't done much to stimulate home buying so these beaten-down stocks aren't for those seeking a quick flip. But their management teams seem to have the financial discipline to make the most of an ugly market.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 11, 2025 07:47 ET (12:47 GMT)

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