MW What's the true price of Thanksgiving? Trump says groceries are getting cheaper, but many Americans are still concerned about costs.
By Charles Passy
A new survey finds Americans expect to spend $175 on food and as much as $952 overall on this Thanksgiving, including turkey, travel and decor
The cost of turkey has been running slightly higher in recent weeks compared with last year, according to market researcher NielsenIQ. But supermarket promotions abound, experts note.
Talk about a food fight.
With Thanksgiving just a couple of weeks away, there's heated debate over what the classic holiday meal will cost this year - and questions regarding how much Americans will spend, particularly after contending with the food-price inflation of recent years.
On the one hand, President Donald Trump and administration officials have been touting that this Thanksgiving will be considerably more affordable than in previous years. They've pointed to how prominent grocery retailers, including Walmart $(WMT)$, Target (TGT), Aldi and Schnuck Markets, say they are working to bring costs down.
"America is winning the war on high prices," the White House said in a statement.
On the other hand, reports indicate Americans are still preoccupied with inflation, and that elevated prices remain an issue for many. A new survey from financial platform Chime $(CHYM)$ found that Americans expect to spend $175 on food and as much as $952 overall on the holiday when factoring in everything from décor and travel to buying a new outfit or fixing an appliance before meal preparation begins.
The same survey found that 63% of respondents said it's expensive to get together with family during Thanksgiving. "Which undermines the whole meaning of the holiday," said Janelle Sallenave, Chime's chief spending officer.
Nevertheless, if you look at the raw data, prices are lower - in some cases by a considerable amount - or just slightly higher for many of the food items in the Thanksgiving shopping basket. Market researcher NielsenIQ found declines in the average prices of puréed pumpkin (down 15.5%), corn (down 8.5%) and pie crust (down 3%) for the four-week period ending Nov. 1, compared with the same period in 2024.
Putting a price on turkey
As for the all-important turkey (in whole form), the price is down by 7.6%, according to NielsenIQ. Other reports have suggested prices could be higher for the bird, at least in theory, because avian flu has affected production.
Either way, consumer advocates and other experts note that many retailers will run promotions on the fowl favorite when the holiday approaches as a way to get shoppers in the door.
"We're going to see specials. It's what grocery stores do," said David Anderson, a Texas A&M University livestock economist.
Indeed, many retailers have already announced deals, including the ones touted by the Trump administration. For example, Schnuck Markets, a Midwestern chain with more than 100 locations, said its prices on frozen turkey are the lowest in at least 15 years.
'We're going to see specials. It's what grocery stores do.'David Anderson, Texas A&M
But the promotion that's perhaps gotten the most attention is Walmart's under-$40 Thanksgiving package that serves 10 people, complete with a Butterball turkey (priced at 97 cents a pound) and all the ingredients for sides. Walmart said it's the lowest price for the package since it started offering the holiday meal combo a few years ago. Trump even spoke about the Walmart deal earlier this month, noting that it's 25% cheaper than a year ago.
Comparing apples and oranges
But criticism has focused on the fact that Walmart's Thanksgiving package for 2025 doesn't, in fact, contain the exact same items as last year. "Trump's numbers are off," an Associated Press report said.
White House spokesman Kush Desai responded to this wave of critical reporting, telling MarketWatch: "Pointless media gotchas won't change the fact that addressing Joe Biden's inflation crisis has been a Day One priority for President Trump, who has already lowered prices for essentials like gas and eggs and cooled inflation to an annualized 2.5% rate - half the average inflation rate under Joe Biden."
The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the consumer-price index, was between 2.6% and 3% when President Biden left office.
Other reports suggest Americans are feeling financially pressured as they approach the holiday season.
'The perception is out there that this is going to be a more expensive holiday.'Matt Schulz, LendingTree
A LendingTree (TREE) survey found that Thanksgiving hosts expect to spend $487 on average this year for food, drinks and décor - a 13% increase from 2024. The same survey found that 60% of respondents said inflation is affecting their plans and 33% said the costs of the holiday cause financial strain. Perhaps most telling: 18% are expressing regret about hosting Thanksgiving.
Matt Schulz, chief consumer-finance analyst at LendingTree, said that, regardless of the actual price of turkey and other items, many consumers have a certain mindset this year about Turkey Day. "The perception is out there that this is going to be a more expensive holiday," he said.
As for that perception, Michael Swanson, an agricultural economist with Wells Fargo, said it may have to do with the fact that prices continue to be elevated for food items in general, as evidenced by the most recent available federal government data that show a 2.7% annual increase in the "food at home" category's costs. But, as Swanson pointed out, some of the items driving that overall increase - such as beef, up 14.7% -are not necessarily likely to be found at the Thanksgiving table.
"Those have been the nail that sticks up," Swanson said.
Even if some consumers are feeling skittish about Thanksgiving, experts are quick to point out there are always ways to economize for the holiday.
Obviously, people can find deals such as Walmart's offering. And they can ask guests to help out by bringing a dish.
Sallenave said the Chime survey found that younger generations - millennials and Gen Z members - are particularly adept at scaling back or making other changes when planning gatherings to ensure a fun but affordable Thanksgiving.
They're focusing on "what really matters - connection over perfection," she said.
-Charles Passy
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 15, 2025 12:37 ET (17:37 GMT)
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